Tips for "buying the bottom" of Bitcoin

1. Phased regulatory measures are completed and a long-term mechanism is established

On the evening of November 25, the People's Bank of China released the "China Financial Stability Report (2019)". There are two references to digital currency in this report that deserve our attention:

1) "The 173 domestic virtual currency trading and token issuance financing platforms have all exited without risk."

2) "We must resolutely fight the tough battle to prevent and defuse major financial risks, balance the relationship between stable growth and risk prevention, consolidate the responsibilities of all parties, properly handle and resolve various hidden risks, and hold the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risks from occurring to the maximum extent possible. protect the lawful rights and interests of the broad masses of the people”.

The prelude to this round of supervision started in Shanghai. In the regulatory document in Shanghai, it was clearly mentioned that the deadline for moping is November 22, and then combined with this summary document of the People’s Bank of China.It can basically be concluded that the staged tasks of this round of investigation have been completed. However, supervision will not be completed, and future supervision will be long-term and institutionalized. At any time, the regulators may take actions to rectify new activities involving financial risks.

So what does this mean for us ordinary investors? There are still a few points that I have repeatedly emphasized:

1) The exchange is a place to buy coins and invest, not a place to make short-term money;

2) Stay away from small and medium exchanges and only trade on large exchanges;

3) Stay away from MLM coins and air coins, and focus on mainstream coins.

By sticking to these three points, we will surely be able to invest more steadily without being destructively impacted.

2. Bitcoin’s deposit time

Recently, I read the article "Hoarding Bitcoin: ahr999 Index" by the well-known blogger ahr999. He summed up a set of bitcoin price trends and the choice of timing for hoarding coins. This method is very innovative and I would like to share it with you.

Let's look at a picture first

The red solid line in the figure is the currency price trend, the blue dotted line is the index fitting line of the currency price, and the green line is the 200-day scheduled investment cost line.

There is an unfamiliar word "exponential fit line" here. What does it mean? In layman's terms, it is to approximate the change of Bitcoin's price over time with a curve that is as smooth as possible. This smooth curve should conform to the price trend as much as possible and reflect price changes and characteristics. The calculation of this curve is calculated by the method of exponential equation.

In this picture, when the currency price (red line) is lower than the index fitting line (blue line) and the 200-day scheduled investment cost line (green line), it is a good time to hoard coins.

However, this picture is still not intuitive enough, so the author continued to deduce and got the following picture:

This picture is much more intuitive. The area framed by the two dotted lines in the figure is the "fixed investment range" recommended for investors. The area above the dotted line above is the range where the price of Bitcoin may rise sharply at any time. The area below the dotted line below is the "buying interval".

I have a slightly different opinion on the "buying interval" in this picture.

Readers who know me know,I don't have the concept of "buying the bottom", because I think no one can know where the bottom is, and the mathematical calculations only reflect the trend, which is an important reference for us but not an absolute basis. Therefore, I am more inclined to interpret this "bottom-hunting range" as increasing the range of fixed investment within my ability.

Looking at this "bottom-buying interval" from another angle,We found that the real time in the "bottom-hunting zone" in the picture is very short, almost fleeting. In such a short period of time, it is extremely difficult for most investors in the market to bottom-out.

Therefore, fixed investment is more rational and practical.

It is worth noting that at the end of this picture, the blue line is close to the area of ​​2020, that is, the area we are experiencing now. The trend of the blue line is downward. If we look at this trend, the current decline will still be If it lasts for a period of time, it may even reach the position of "bottom-buying interval" in the figure again.

Seeing this, our smart readers know what to do:Make sure to invest with peace of mind, work hard and study hard.