Bitcoin continues to fall, the next situation analysis?

Although this round of regulatory action is not as severe and high-standard as the 94 policy in 2017 in terms of momentum, it is no less than 94 in terms of strength and speed, and even has more specific goals and strikes than 94. point.

Since Shanghai issued regulatory documents to kick off this round of supervision, there are news every day, new measures every day, and new waves are set off in the circle every day.

On the afternoon of November 23, "Securities Times" officially released an article "Bright Sword Virtual Currency! Supervision in many places, official accounts of Binance and Tron are blocked, and digital currencies flee collectively"

"Securities Times" is a national financial and securities daily newspaper sponsored by the People's Daily. It mainly reports on the securities market, taking into account economic and financial information, and its status is quite authoritative. The voice of the "Securities Times" is equivalent to the official early warning and reminder.

In this article, there are two points of information worthy of our attention: the first is to name "Binance" and "TRON" in the title, and the second is to mention that "industry close to the regulator revealed to the reporter : 'The wave of arrests in the currency circle has just begun'."

Compared with Huobi and OK, Binance has been operating far away overseas and has been subject to relatively few regulatory constraints, but its domestic announcements have always been high-profile, so it is not surprising that it was directly named by the supervision this time.

But what is more critical is that in the face of the situation of strengthening supervision around the world, the next move of Binance will determine its future development. If under the supervision policy this time, it can cooperate with the supervision and gradually move closer to the regular army, it should be able to develop more permanently and steadily.

Therefore, investors should be reminded that this time the governance and rectification will not only mean that small and medium-sized exchanges and all kinds of MLM coins will be cleared and withdrawn from the market, but some ostentatious public chains may also make great strides towards zero.

Under the turmoil, the overall market of digital currency is even weaker. Bitcoin has been hovering around $7,000 for several days. In the foreseeable future, if there is no extremely sudden news stimulus, the market will almost only have downward momentum and no upward momentum.

In addition, the upcoming December is Christmas in the West on the one hand, and the end-of-year account closing stage in my country on the other hand. Not only will the off-market funds be tight, but the willingness to enter the market will be very low.

Under these big bearish conditions, the possibility of Bitcoin falling below $7,000 is quite high.

$8,000 is the break-even point for many small and medium-sized miners. If Bitcoin cannot return to above $8,000 for a period of time, miners will most likely have to sell Bitcoin to withdraw funds in order to maintain operations, which will accelerate the price decline. If the situation continues to fail to improve, the next step is to sell the mining machines and close the mine. This scene is very similar to what happened at the end of last year.

The recent trading price of Canaan Zhizhi, which went public two days ago, fell below the issue price, which also seems to indicate that the situation in the next month or two will be very severe.

Many old friends in the circle compare this situation with the situation after 1994, thinking that this is a big drop before the big rise, and the big rise after that will definitely come.

Will history repeat itself? In this regard, I am cautious, citing my point of view in the article "Bitcoin is halved, what to do if the bull market does not come" on November 15:

Therefore, even if the halving of Bitcoin next year does not cause the market we expected, our investors in it should have firm confidence to continue to work in this field and continue our regular investment, and don't give up this extremely promising market because of the temporary desertion and depression. field of foreground.

We must not fall in the darkest night before the dawn, but insist on seeing the dawn.

Bite your bitcoins, save enough food for life, and invest to the end.