BTC goes down in heavy volume, pay attention to the performance of this position, if it falls below effectively, it is a bottomless abyss

特邀专栏作者

2019-11-22 12:58 (UTC+8)

This article is about 1796 words, reading the full article takes about 3 minutes

The decline of BTC has nothing to do with the listing of Canaan, the main force still holds short positions, and pays attention to the rebound and short-selling opportunities.

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The decline of BTC has nothing to do with the listing of Canaan, the main force still holds short positions, and pays attention to the rebound and short-selling opportunities.

【Market review】

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BTC closed at 7627.74 yesterday (refer to platform price: Binance), with the highest price at 8134.34 and the lowest price at 7500.00. The short position has increased, about 1/3 of the increase from the previous day, and the price has fallen below all lows since 10.27. A new low, the support level formed on 10.24 near 7300-7500 stopped falling and rebounded. The current price is 7647.94, which is rebounding slightly.

Yesterday’s market basically continued the incremental downward trend of the previous day. Since the end of October, the continuous price fell below the support levels of 9100, 8700, and 8400. Although the current price has temporarily dropped, there is no sign of bulls intervening, and the shorts are only temporary It is expected to continue to break down after testing the 8400 support level upwards.

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【Fundamentals】

In terms of fundamentals, there is no doubt that the most noteworthy thing yesterday was the news that mining machine giant Canaan Technology (code: CAN) was listed on Nasdaq. As currency speculators, we don’t need to pay attention to the actual performance of CAN. How (violently pulled up at the opening and then broke, the taste of deja vu), what we need to pay attention to is whether this kind of news will bring some changes to the digital currency market? Coincidentally, BTC just plummeted in the market yesterday, and there were many voices in the community saying that the listing of CAN caused the peers to smash the market. In order to prove it, I compared the relationship between the two

It can be seen from the figure above that the performance of CAN is obviously lagging behind BTC at the same time period level (1 minute). If I have to say that the two are related, I would rather understand that BTC brought down Canaan Technology. The trend is basically synchronized in the follow-up performance, but from the above chart, I think the argument that peers smashed BTC is untenable.

As for yesterday's large-scale downward movement, I personally think that it has nothing to do with CAN. It is more that the main force hopes to take advantage of this opportunity to profit. As shown in the figure above, I have been emphasizing that the upper oscillating triangle is the cost of the main force's layout of empty orders. As far as market participants are concerned, any behavior that cannot make a profit is hooliganism, and the main force is no exception. If you place an empty order, you must try your best to make the price fall to make a profit. Running in the opposite direction makes retail investors think that "the bull market is coming" and "hold firm! Increase positions!" You know, the total long and short positions in the market are the same, that is, the money I earn is the money you lose , Then do you think you can earn more than the main institutions?

On the other hand, if the main force wants the price to fall, why are there frequent positives recently? Blockchain stocks are listed for IPO, Hangzhou BTC is good, Libra is about to be used again, etc. Please think about a question, where do these news come from? Who released it? For whom? What is the purpose? If you are the main force, you definitely don’t want retail investors to be on the same train as you, because they will share your profits, so the main force will definitely spread some information that is beneficial to their position (for example, if their direction is short, then Just release good news), and at the same time cooperate with some established news to attract funds (such as the listing of CAN, everyone knows it is good, but why did it fall? Obviously it was used, and all the chips for long orders were taken away by the main force) , if you pull the market again at this time, as a retail investor, are you going to buy chips again? . . .

The picture above is a summary of this passage.

Going back to the disk, BTC breaks its position and goes down in volume, and rebounds when it touches 7500. There is no doubt that the current trend is short. It is the sea of stars, and I saw 5000 directly. At present, the price is expected to fluctuate around 7300-7500 for a period of time. If it can’t increase the volume and break through the key position (almost impossible), then it will be a matter of time before it breaks.

In terms of indicators, the VEGAS slow-line group effectively fell below, and it is unlikely to stand up again in the short term, and the opening of the moving average group diverges downward

Bollinger Bands fell below the lower track, RSI, CCI, STOCH and other indicators all show that the current market is a bearish signal

ETH

In terms of key data, the total open interest fell rapidly last night, the trading volume increased rapidly, and a large number of orders were liquidated. There is no sign of recovery at present, and it is likely to continue to decline

EOS

In terms of strategy: pay attention to the support around 7400. If it does not break down again, you can intervene in short-term Dobo short-term. If the price can return to around 8100 and give short-selling opportunities, then those who have not entered the market can continue to enter the market. At the same time, we need to pay attention A new structural level appears during the rebound, and those who have already held empty orders should reduce their positions. It is expected that the market will grind around 7400 for a period of time, and then fall below

ETC

High volume down market, currently testing the first-line support of 155, it is expected to go down further, there is no good opportunity to enter the market, the effective support is 158-159, and the key pressure is 173-177

LTC

In the oversold and rebounding market, if you are long, you still need to wait for the second test not to break through, otherwise you will still look at it with a short-selling idea, support 2.73-2.63, pressure 3.0-3.1