The layout after the BTC catastrophe, facing the halving market next year
Yesterday's article said, "Once the daily MACD dead cross is formed, the market will enter a bear-dominated pattern. At that time, the MA60 daily moving average and the bottom support of $9,000 may not be able to hold in front of the waterfall", which is a prophecy.
Last night, after BTC fell below the previous strong support of 9,000 US dollars, the decline expanded sharply, reaching as low as around 8,700 US dollars, and the short-term rebound was extremely weak. todayThe MACD dead cross at the daily line level has officially formed, and the MA60 daily moving average has also changed from previous support to pressure. The market is dominated by bulls and has entered the long-short competition area。
How will the next market go? We continue to review the analysis with the MACD indicator at the daily level.
The overall market is in a period from December last year to June this year. The fast and slow lines of MACD (DIF, DEA) gradually approached the 0 axis from away from the 0 axis after the cataract, and the market potential energy began to change from short to long. When two After the fast-slow line broke above the 0 axis, the big rebound officially kicked off, and the market entered a bull-dominated pattern.
Around the end of June, the bulls and shorts reversed again. In the process of finishing the trend at a high level, they have been digesting the strength of the bulls. The DIF and DEA lines have been far away from the 0 axis, and began to quickly fall below the 0 axis. At this time, BTC from The high point of 14,000 US dollars fell to 9,100 US dollars, a drop of up to 35%.
After more than 4 months of continuous gains, the long and short forces accumulated in the market are extremely strong. After a short period of rapid adjustment, there will inevitably be a counterattack. Therefore, we see that under the counterattack of the bulls, the DIF line crosses the DEA line again, from Breaking through from below the 0 axis to above, after the currency price rebounded to a high of 12,000 US dollars,The volume cannot be sustained, and then the market is once again dominated by bears, Since August, it has started a long road of decline.
The big waterfall on 9.25 can be regarded as accelerating the downward trend, followed by a rebound, and the fast and slow line moved away from the 0 axis again and moved closer to the 0 axis.If there is no 10.25 domestic blockchain policy, the market will not rebound so quickly, but will continue to fluctuate slightly to approach the 0 axis。
After being affected by the policy, the market rose for a short time, and the MACD green column gained continuity, representing the power of net longs. However, in the later period, the volume can not be followed up for a long time, and then breaks through the pressure range, but enters the trend of shrinking and finishing. usually,The MACD fast and slow line rebounded from below the 0-axis to above the 0-axis. The bulls only have the upper hand. If they cannot continue in the future, they will be attacked by the bears again.。
Yesterday’s BTC waterfall was the result of short-term short-term raids. Although it caused a MACD dead cross at the daily level, the short-term market may fall into a volatile trend, butThe previous bottom trend has been formed. When the MACD fast and slow line does not fall below the 0 axis, the bulls still have the upper hand, the overall market will still go up, this is the power of the trend.
And November is also an important time node. From January to June this year, the upward trend continued for more than 5 months, and from June to November, the downward trend continued for more than 5 months. At present, it is almost 5 months before the halving market in April-May next year.We are now at a critical point in time for a trend change。
Operation suggestion:
Operation suggestion:
BTC: After yesterday's continuous drop, there is a demand for a rebound in the short-term market, and the rebound pressure range is 8900-9000 US dollars. Over the weekend, if the market can rebound and once again stand above the daily MA60 moving average, the follow-up market is still worth looking forward to.
The only thing to pay attention to is the lack of rebound volume due to the lack of market confidence. Under the pressure of short positions, the market has the risk of falling again. The lower support level is 8,650 US dollars (supported by the daily MA30 daily moving average). It will go to the shock range of 8300-8600 US dollars. At the current point, you can add another 10% to the fixed investment position. Short-term operations need to bring a stop loss.
ETH: Although following the decline of the broader market, the decline is limited. There is a certain support at the bottom of the range of 180-185 US dollars, and the main currency will continue to be held. The pressure at the top is 195-200 US dollars.
LTC: After following the decline of the broader market yesterday, the decline has been recovered today. The short-term market is strong, and $60 is still a strong support in the near future. A small amount of positions can be opened near this range.
BCH: Following the decline of the broader market, it once fell to the range of 270 US dollars yesterday, and is currently stable above the support of 280 US dollars. It is relatively safe to stand on the MA60 moving average (290 US dollars) at the 4-hour level, and wait and see.
EOS: It fell slightly for a short time, but the decline was not obvious, and the strength of the rebound was strong, and most of the decline has been recovered today. If it can stand firm at 3.45-3.5 US dollars in the short term, after the market stops falling and stabilizes, it will lead the rise of mainstream currencies again.
XRP: Following the decline of the market, the short-term rebound is weak. Currencies that are not recommended to participate in the short to medium term will be considered after the currency price has completely stabilized at $0.3.
ETC: Following the decline of the broader market, but because it has been a shocking rebound recently, the overall decline does not seem obvious. If the daily line level can stand firmly above the MA60 moving average ($5), there is a probability that the market will continue to rise.
Platform currency: Follow the short-term decline of the market, but the daily trading volume continues to be low, and the probability of short-term sharp rise and fall is low. BNB follows the market waterfall for a short time, and the overall trend is still in the range of 19-21 US dollars; HT hourly level has dropped slightly, testing the support of 3.85 US dollars for a short time, and it needs to break through 3.9 US dollars to completely stand firm; OKB has fallen sharply in a short time , At present, it has come to sort out around 3 US dollars, and it needs to break through the pressure range of 3.15 US dollars to stand firm; the GT daily line level maintains a shocking trend near the MA60 daily moving average, and the volume can continue to shrink.
Altcoins: In the short to medium term, it is recommended to continue to stay away from altcoins, as their liquidity is gradually weakening and risks are greater. Affected by the sharp drop in the BTC market, the domestic public chain currency has retreated in a short period of time, falling back to the second rise, but the daily line level trend has not completely broken, you can continue to wait and see with the currency, and you need to be wary of the market in the short term The risk of follow-up decline caused by continuing to break the position.
