Discovering value from Bitcoin's 11-year development history, the market maintains a shrinking trend
October 31 is the 11th anniversary of the release of the Bitcoin white paper. Coinbase released a series of data to describe the development of Bitcoin in the past 11 years. There are several data worthy of our attention. These areThe root cause of BTC's ability to maintain its dominance in the cryptocurrency market and support the continued rise in currency prices。
The first is the number of users. Bitcoin has grown from an idea in 2008 and the first transaction in 2009 to more than 27 million users in the United States in 2019, accounting for 9% of the U.S. population, whileThere are more than 820,000 unique addresses worldwide transacting Bitcoin on the network. For a worldwide payment network and financial business, these user bases are sufficient to support a huge network value.
The second is trend heat. According to Google Trends,Global interest in Bitcoin has been spreading since 2009, from one country to another, reflecting a growing, sustained and worldwide trend in global interest in Bitcoin and blockchain technology , reflecting the vigorous vitality of BTC。
The third is the number of Bitcoin nodes.At present, more than 55,000 computers in 96 countries are running BTC full nodes on the network, responsible for recording and verifying BTC transactions. This reflects that Bitcoin allows anyone to have equal voting rights in the global system, reflecting fairness. On the other hand,The participation of more nodes increases the decentralization of the BTC network, and the POW mining mechanism encourages miners to compete for mining, which improves the Bitcoin computing power and makes the BTC network more secure。
The fourth is the application of bitcoin payment.Millions of people are already transacting on the Bitcoin network and thousands of stores are accepting Bitcoin payments, new technologies make it faster and cheaper to use Bitcoin every day. Billions of dollars of value are successfully transferred through the Bitcoin blockchain every day, and the cost of BTC transactions is usually only about $0.75. Compared with traditional bank wire transfers and cross-border payments, the transaction costs, convenience and versatility of BTC Sex is higher.
The fifth is the investment value of Bitcoin. From the first transaction priced at a few cents in 2009 to the high point of 20,000 US dollars in 2017, the increase of hundreds of thousands of times is incomparable to any traditional investment target.Since 2013, bitcoin has outperformed the world's most popular stock indexes, including technology stocks and the S&P 500.
Although the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated and the bull-bear cycle alternates, itsThe overall trend has been oscillating upwards, the bottom is getting higher and higher, and the value is getting bigger and bigger, all of which reflect the great investment value of BTC.Coupled with the fact that Bitcoin is a deflationary cryptocurrency, and the underlying code controls the number of new Bitcoins and the maximum number, we can foresee that with the expansion of the BTC payment network effect and marginal utility, the expansion of the audience, the value of BTC will be further demonstrated.
Back to the market,
Back to the market,The overall market continues to shrink and consolidate, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, As I said in yesterday’s article, the good policy news last weekend disrupted the dealer’s deliberate pressure to collect chips in the past few months. In the range of 9,000-10,000 US dollars, the dealer has greater concerns.
On the one hand, there are only a few months before the halving cycle next year, and the arrow has to be launched. This is a general trend that cannot be reversed. On the other hand, the chips have not been collected enough, and it will become more and more difficult to collect chips again by smashing the plate. In a dilemma, the only way to play with this kind of range-bound volatility is to kill the confidence of retail investors and the willingness to hold coins and rush to raise money.
The trend of the market is determined by the market makers. Before they think clearly and take action (sharply magnified volume), we, as ordinary retail investors, stillWaiting for the change is the main thing, the enemy has not moved, and I have not moved. In addition to implementing the fixed investment strategy, short-term low-absorbing and high-selling, strict stop-profit and stop-loss, do not mess around。
Specific to Bitcoin, the market continues to fluctuate and consolidate, with 8900-9000 US dollars as the bottom support and 9400-9500 US dollars as the short-term pressure, and the range repeatedly fluctuates. It is expected that this short-term consolidation trend will continue. As long as it does not fall below the daily line-level MA60 daily moving average support (which cannot be recovered within 24 hours), the market is relatively safe, and the currency is mainly on the sidelines.
The mainstream currency market keeps pace with the BTC market, and the currency price and trading volume shrink simultaneously, with no direction. At the current time point, the probability of the mainstream currency going independent is low, and it needs the direction of the BTC market before it can act.
Under the leadership of the leader BTM, the domestic public chain currency has experienced a small wave of upward movement, but its volume is much weaker than before. If it cannot accumulate a larger volume in a short period of time, it may face the risk of falling, but As long as there is no large-scale breakout (daily line level MA120 daily moving average, MA60 daily moving average support), there will still be opportunities to pull up in the future, mainly based on currency holdings.
