In the economic downturn cycle, survival is the top priority

1. The further deterioration of the economic situation

According to the economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics last week, the single-quarter GDP in the third quarter increased by 6% year-on-year. This growth rate has hit a new low since 1992. Even in the first quarter of 2009 when the financial tsunami swept the world, the GDP growth rate was still 6.2%.

The famous economist Xiang Songzuo published a short article on this data, arguing that the data from the National Bureau of Statistics was overestimated, and the short article was quickly deleted after it was issued.

At the same time, the latest industrial producer prices in September fell by 1.2% year-on-year, continuing the downward trend in August; while consumer prices rose by 3% year-on-year, continuing the upward trend in August. That is to say, inflation is happening in consumer goods, but deflation is happening in industrial goods.

These data reveal that my country's economic situation is further deteriorating, and trade wars and various internal and external unfavorable factors are gradually fermenting. In the context of the overall poor global economy, the possibility of further deterioration in the future cannot even be ruled out.

In the case of poor overall economic performance, the country will be in a dilemma regarding monetary policy. If a tightening policy is adopted in order to curb inflation, it will further suppress the prices of industrial products and make it worse for small and medium-sized enterprises that are struggling to survive. The plight of small and medium-sized enterprises may further increase inflation.

In my previous article, I said that "my country's future economic situation is not optimistic in general", "In order to cope with the 'cold winter' starting from the second half of the year and continuing until next year, investors must pay attention to retaining enough funds. Take out funds to invest in digital currency without affecting your life."

2. Another well-known public chain storm

For veterans in the currency circle, AELF is an old-fashioned project. When the project came out that year, it focused on the direction of decentralized cloud computing. The team members of the project all have a deep IT background, and the lineup of investment institutions is relatively strong, including FBG, Node Capital, Leading Capital, Huobi Capital, etc. The project team's entrepreneurial experience, industry resources and technical strength in the blockchain industry are obviously recognized by many front-line investment institutions.

The project was launched on the exchange as early as the peak of the bull market in December 2017, which can be said to be born at the right time. As of the time of writing, AELF ranks 87th on coinmarketcap, which is an out-and-out top 100 currency.

However, it is such a project with a background that there have been various rumors of suspected escape recently.

Many netizens reported that the cross-chain project ælf is suspected to be laying off staff on a large scale, and the community has also been disbanded. The relevant screenshots shown below show that the original ælf community members have been removed from all related communities.

In this regard, the project party responded that the reason for disbanding the WeChat group was to focus on project development, and said that the project party would focus on the developer community. The team will operate as usual and will follow the regulations to carry out the AELF community.

I think this statement is quite pale.

In the article "Bytom CEO resigns, where is the path for the public chain project" on October 1, I reminded the well-known domestic public chain Gongxinbao that it is not accidental that Bytom has problems one after another. The root cause of this is the public chain Survivors on the track are now becoming more and more clear, most of the public chains will gradually die out, and there will be more public chains in succession.

3. "Quantitative trading" has stepped down

Quantitative trading was a hot spot in the first half of this year, and quantitative trading projects emerged one after another.

But what about the actual status of these projects?

Allen, the founder of the IX.com exchange, said in a public speech that "among the more than 2,000 quantitative teams in China, in terms of currency standard, the quantitative teams with sustainable profitability will not exceed 20%, and in terms of gold standard, no more than 5 %; only 100 can make a profit".

In July this year, an exchange held a simulated quantitative competition. Among the top 10, 8 lost money. The irony is that the reason for the championship team's victory was that they were short positions and did nothing.

A quantitative team member said, "A real quantitative trading team can achieve an annualized return of 10%, which is already very good."

So those quantitative trading projects with a monthly return of 15% or more were all a mess.

When these teams take investors’ money and cannot make profits through normal trading methods, they will take risks and gamble with leverage.

In the previous article "Be wary of projects under the guise of 'quantitative trading'", I introduced the origin and development of quantitative trading, and reminded investors that "quantitative trading... cannot guarantee stable profits", and "the world's top The best result created by the quantitative trading team is only an annual return rate of 73%.

4. Keep your money bag tight and invest cautiously

The overall market of digital currency is not good, and the country’s general environment continues to deteriorate. Once mythical projects, old and well-known projects have been thundered one after another. This cold winter will be difficult not only for project parties, but also for ordinary investors. And this state will continue.

Even if the overall digital currency market will pick up in the future, it will only benefit a small number of top projects and projects with the highest consensus, but this will not change the overall environment, nor will it change the ultimate fate of other projects.

Therefore, I would like to remind investors once again that in the case of leaving enough surplus food, only use the main funds to invest in mainstream currencies, and the safest ones are BTC and Ethereum. In this cold winter, rejecting all temptations, not tossing, not taking risks, minimizing risks, and surviving is our top priority.