85% of Bitcoins have been mined, how much time is left for us?

Since BTC fell to $8,000 last Friday (October 18), BTC has been hovering below $8,000 for the past few days.

1. Fed water injection

On October 17, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York injected US$104.15 billion of temporary liquidity into the financial market. This is undoubtedly another quantitative easing in disguise. As of the time of writing, the market value of BTC is 143.8 billion US dollars, and this operation alone is equivalent to 72% of the market value of Bitcoin.

Why is the Fed making such a water injection? The fundamental reason is that the overall economic situation in the United States is worrying and the funding is extremely tight.

The tightness of funds will inevitably lead to a rise in market interest rates. The current US economy is facing greater downward pressure. If interest rates continue to rise at this time, it will cause market deterioration or even a black swan event. The trigger point of the financial turmoil in 2008 was the rise in interest rates that led to the inability to repay debts.

With this lesson learned, the Federal Reserve will never let this happen, so it immediately injected water into the market.

As soon as the news came out, the safe-haven assets gold and silver did not respond with a rise, but were almost unmoved, while BTC immediately fell to the $8,000 mark. This is a typical phenomenon of market downturn: loss of confidence in the bulls.

2. High leverage trading on Binance

Also last Friday (October 18), Binance announced that it will allow traders to choose any leverage from 1x to 125x. Simply put, if users want to trade futures contracts on Binance, the maximum leverage will be 125 times.

I have emphasized the danger of futures leverage many times in previous articles. Take buying up plus 125 times leverage as an example, when the price rises by 0.8%, the profit can reach 100%, that is, double; and when the price falls by 0.8%, the loss can reach 100%, that is, the principal is fully invested. deficit.

For this level of leverage, our ordinary traders must not only see its magnified profit multiples, but also its magnified loss multiples.

In the past, the contract leverage given by the exchange was 5 times, and 10 times has already caused many retail investors to lose their money. However, Binance even gave such a high leverage of 125 times. It is conceivable that some traders who cannot restrain their inner greed will go nowhere...

Why did Binance launch such a high leverage?

I think the main reason is that the overall sluggish market of digital currencies has led to a decrease in trading volume, and competition for traffic has become the key to the survival of exchanges.

The exchange is one of the rare fields in the blockchain field with a clear profit model. Although the competition is already so fierce, there are still funds eager to enter this field hoping to get a piece of the pie, so new exchanges are emerging one after another. The established exchanges also tried their best to compete for traffic.

But when the big market is not good, there is only so much market traffic, so Binance has come up with this big killer.

90% of the people in the investment market are destined to be losers, they are destined to be leeks in the market, and they are destined to fall into one pit after another because of the temptation of greed in their hearts.

The extremely tempting leveraged trading is a bottomless pit.

3. The 18 millionth BTC was mined

On October 19th, the 18 millionth BTC was dug out, so far only 3 million of the 21 million BTC remained. It took 10 years for the first 18 million coins to be mined, and 120 years for the remaining 3 million coins to be mined.

In the long run, this is definitely good for BTC, because the remaining 3 million will trigger more intense competition among miners,The computing power of BTC will continue to rise, and the cost of BTC will also continue to rise, which will further increase the bottom of the price of BTC.

In BTC mining, most of the miners have to bear the daily operation and maintenance, so a considerable part of the coins mined every day will have to be sold for cash. The biggest selling pressure in the BTC market actually comes from the miners.

When BTC is halved next year, the selling pressure from miners will inevitably decrease, which will further stabilize the price of BTC.

If the current market is not stimulated by huge external information in the short term, it is estimated that it will continue for a while. I estimated in the previous article that BTC may fall to around $6,000, and it does not matter whether this will come true. The important thing is how we investors should respond in this market situation.

It's what I have repeatedly emphasized: regular investment, learning, and paying close attention to industry development.