What's the Next Bitcoin 'Never Look Back' Price?

Recently, an article on the Internet analyzed some "never turning back" prices that appeared in the history of Bitcoin. The article charts these prices and presents you with a very interesting scene, which I would like to share with you here.

First of all, let's look at what the so-called "never look back" price in the article means.

The price of "never look back" means that after the last time BTC fell to a certain price, it has never fallen below this price no matter how the market develops.

Whenever you find a "never look back" price, record the price and the corresponding time. If we start from July 19, 2010 and connect all the "never look back" prices in the history of BTC so far, we will see the following price chart.

The vertical axis in the graph above is the price of BTC. The horizontal axis is the square root of time. The zero point on the horizontal axis is July 19, 2010. The 10 on the horizontal axis is actually the square root of 100, which is the 100th day since July 19, 2010. 20 is actually the square root of 400, which is the 400th day since July 19, 2010.

The time square root algorithm used on the horizontal axis is a common method traditionally used to measure the value of time. It simplifies price changes into a straight line, but it will not affect the analysis of prices.

The two red trend lines in the figure generally reflect the range of BTC price changes, that is, the fluctuations of BTC prices between the "never turning back" prices.

From the figure we can find the following phenomena:

1) The price trend of Bitcoin "never turning back" has not changed in the past 10 years, and has been showing an upward trend, and has the momentum to continue to extend.

2) The price of "never turning back" is difficult to predict in advance, but we found that as the time axis elongates, the more backward the previously established "never turning back" price is more likely to be established.

What does it mean? We use the coordinates in the figure to illustrate:

A horizontal line corresponding to the horizontal axis 34 to 41 in the figure corresponds to a price of about 200 US dollars, and the horizontal axis 34 to 41 represents the 1160 to 1680 days after July 19, 2010, that is, from September 2013 to During February 2015.

And once the price of BTC exceeds $200, it will never look back, and as time goes on, the possibility of returning to $200 is almost zero.

According to this phenomenon, we can speculate on the situation that the low point of $3,000 in this round of bear market may face.

In this round of bear market, it reached a low point of more than 3,000 US dollars at the end of December 2018, which exactly corresponds to the last long interval in the figure, which is a horizontal line corresponding to the horizontal axis 52 to 57 in the figure. The price corresponding to this horizontal line is about 3000 US dollars. The horizontal axis 52 to 57 represents the 2,700 to 3,250 days after July 19, 2010, that is, the period from January 2018 to June 2019.

After this horizontal line, we see that the trend line in the chart jumps upwards, heading straight to the next "never look back" price. As for the price of the next "never look back", we cannot know in advance.But the message of this trend is that the price of $3,000 is likely to be difficult to touch again.

That is to say,

That is to say,If the never-turning-back price of BTC reaches $10,000 between March and July next year, it is possible that $10,000 will be the next never-turning-back price of BTC.