On the futures delivery day, the market will fall again. How to understand the recent volatile and downward trend?

In terms of news, the G7 report stated that the authorities should apply existing rules on payments and anti-money laundering, as well as capital market and banking standards, to stablecoins,No stablecoin project should start operating without adequately addressing challenges such as regulation. Central banks, finance ministries, and other authorities should work to address weaknesses in the payments system and bring the unbanked into the financial system. also,Central banks should consider issuing their own digital currencies.

It can be seen that the expansion of the market share of USDT and other stablecoins, especially the intensification of the Libra stablecoin project, has finally begun to impact the traditional financial and banking fields, which has aroused the attention and concern of the regulatory level, forcing the reform of the traditional bank payment business. Improve inclusive financial services. This isThe power of technology and trends, trends are irreversible.

The impact of this kind of news, which is more top-level design, is good in the long run, but it has little influence on the current digital currency market, and investors are accustomed to it.When the influence of the news is weak, the trend and direction can only be judged from the market trend.

Monthly K-line level, because of historical data, we refer to the data of Bitstamp, as can be seen from the historical data,Since 2012, the historical price of BTC has been fluctuating and rising, and after the previous two halvings, both ushered in the outbreak of the bull market. The next halving will be around May 2020. We have reason to believe that the price of BTC will continue to rise at that time.

But far away can't quench the near thirst, the daily line level, since September 25 after the big waterfall,BTC has been in an obvious downward relay trend, the range of 6800-9300 US dollars is the relay range, and the trading volume is gradually shrinking in the range form, From the perspective of support/pressure range and moving average support, there is currently no signal to stop the decline and stabilize. Therefore, in the short to medium term, it will still fluctuate downward.

At the hourly line level, the problem can actually be seen,In the 7 days from November 11 to today, there have been 5 large-scale declines, which shows how weak the market is.. It fell from 8300 dollars the day before yesterday and traded sideways around 8150 dollars. However, the bulls in the market are too weak to gather effective rebound power at this point. Naturally, the shorts suppressed it a little, and the market continued to fall to 7900 dollars. This position is close to The low range since the Great Falls, so retail investors and a small number of funds bought bottoms, which caused a slight rebound to $8,100, but the power of bottom-hunting was too weak, and the lack of trading volume made the market lose confidence. It also coincided with the futures delivery day, causing panic Selling down again.

In the just-concluded futures delivery, Okex contract big data showed that the total amount of BTC contract positions dropped by 300,000 around 16:00, the delivery time, but the largest trading volume was at 13:35 p.m. It has been completed ahead of schedule. After the system is delivered, the market will enter the next round of long-short game stage. The short-term BTC long-short position ratio has rebounded slightly, and there is a rebound demand on the disk, butWhether it can really rebound or not should be reflected in the trading volume. As shown in FIG,Operation suggestion:

Operation suggestion:

BTC: The above is almost the same,Short-term focus on two points: the pressure of $8,000 and the support of $7,700. Looking at the hourly line, some of the decline this afternoon can be released. If the decline can be stopped around $7,900 and the market moves sideways, there is still hope for a rebound. A small rebound, a large number of big rebounds, but the market will be safer only after it stands at $8,300 again. When the bottom range is arranged, short-term investors can participate in a small amount, but they must bring stop loss.

ETH: A short-term drop to $168, the increase after the National Day has completely disappeared. proved againThe short-term mainstream currency market is still linked to BTC, and there is no independent market. Pay attention to the bottom support of 168 US dollars for a short time. Once it breaks, the bottom may go to 140-150 US dollars. In the short term, depending on the bottom support situation, you can participate in light positions, but once the hourly line level falls below $168 again, pay attention to stop losses.

LTC: Following the short-term decline, the bottom support is still in the range of 50-52 US dollars, and the short-term is mainly on the sidelines.

BCH: The trend is in sync with BTC. In the short term, it will test the bottom support of 200-210 US dollars. When the bottom is sideways, you can operate in a small amount of bands and stop loss when it falls below 200.

EOS: When BTC fell again, EOS fell again in a large amount. The short-term support was 2.7 US dollars. In the short-term, it can rebound, and the pressure is around 3 US dollars.

XRP: Although it followed the decline in the short term, the decline was limited. The 4-hour ascending channel was not destroyed, and the short-term continued to maintain a volatile trend in the range of 0.28-0.3 US dollars.

TRX: The short-term decline is also limited, mainly due to the recent marketing strategy and the suspension of selling by currency holders. In the short term, pay attention to the support of US$0.014, and there is a chance to rebound if it does not fall below.

ETC: Short-term decline, the support is at 4.3 US dollars, and it has not broken the recent low of 4.15 US dollars. In the short term, depending on the rebound of BTC, you can participate in light positions, and the upper pressure is in the range of 4.5-4.7 US dollars.

Platform currency: On the whole, the release of recent good news has eased the pressure of selling pressure.In the short to medium term, it belongs to the state where currency holders do not want to sell, and those who do not hold currency do not want to buy, and generally maintain a volatile trend, it is recommended to pay attention to the breakthrough of the pressure level/support level, and if it does not fall below the support level, it is mainly to hold coins. BNB short-term support is $17, pressure is $20; HT fluctuates in the range of $3.35-3.8, short-term support is $3; OKB short-term support is $2.15, pressure is $2.5; GT focuses on the support of $0.5, and has repeatedly released good news. Cooperating with the rise of the market, the performance is not strong enough. If things go on like this, it will only gradually keep the currency holders away, so we need to pay attention to the risk of falling below the support.

Altcoins: Recently, DOGE, XEM, XMR, BAT, ZRX and other currencies have shown signs of increasing volume at the bottom, and the currency prices have risen. If these altcoins with large market capitalization can maintain the rebound trend, it may drive more altcoins to rebound, which can be slightlyPay attention to the top 100 currencies by market capitalization, and focus on two signals: whether the daily line level breaks through the MA30/60 moving average in volume, and whether the daily line level MACD line (DIF, DEA) stands above the 0 axis again after a long-term decline。