The trouble with this world is that fools are very confident and wise men are always full of doubts

Yesterday, a friend recommended an article by Mr. Wan Weigang to me. I read it and found it very interesting. It said that the more you don’t understand, the more confident you will be.

russell famously said"The trouble with this world is that fools are very confident, while wise men are always full of doubts."

For example, in the currency circle, newcomers who have just entered the industry always want to buy 100 times coins with confidence. Basically every day, readers ask me to recommend some currencies. If I recommend Bitcoin, he will immediately say: the price of Bitcoin is too high, and it will not rise much. In the eyes of newcomers, they must be able to buy 100 times coins. This is because of the blind self-confidence brought about by "do not understand".

The more experienced the elderly in the currency circle, the more conservative and prudent they are. Generally, most of the positions are in Bitcoin, and they will never easily take a so-called "hundred times currency". Because after several rounds of bull and bear markets, even among the top ten currencies by market value, only a few can survive.

The article talks about a psychological effect called "Dunning-Kruger effect".

Let me tell you a story first. In 1995, there was a middle-aged man in the United States who went to rob a bank. The strange thing is that since this middle-aged man didn't take any disguise measures and robbed the bank openly, he smiled at the camera and went home after robbing the bank as if he had finished shopping.

That night, the police went to his home and arrested him, taking out surveillance video evidence.

At that time, the middle-aged man was shocked and felt that he should not be discovered because he had already smeared lemon juice on his face!

At this moment, the policeman was dumbfounded. It was later learned that the middle-aged man heard that lemon juice can be used as invisible ink, that is, words written on white paper with lemon juice will become invisible after drying.

Perhaps he had heard the knowledge that lemon juice can make invisible, and thought that if he rubbed lemon juice on something, something would be invisible, but he obviously misunderstood the meaning of "invisible".

The stupid behavior of this middle-aged man later alerted a psychologist at Cornell University named David Dunning, who conducted a study with his graduate student Justin Kruger to see why Such a half-knowledgeable person can have such great self-confidence.

Later they discovered thatThe more ignorant people are, the more confident they are.

Dunning and Kruger studied the relationship between two abilities: the first ability is your level of skill in a certain field, and the second ability is your ability to self-assess this skill-that is, your ability to judge yourself Is there an objective and accurate judgment of the level of

so,

so,Some people have low ability and poor self-evaluation ability. This is the "Dunning-Kruger effect".

The "Dunning-Kruger effect" says that the degree of deviation in self-assessment is related to ability: the less capable a person is, the more he can overestimate his ability.The less you know, the less you know that you don't know. And people with really high levels may underestimate their abilities.