Confidence is more important than gold
The sharp drop in the early morning of September 25 not only caused the BTC market to enter a mid-term adjustment stage from a high level that lasted for more than three months, but also completely wiped out market confidence.
In this year's currency circle,Under the game of market stock funds, confidence is more important than gold. In the absence of confidence, a slight turmoil in the market will cause a major earthquake in the currency circle. Last night, BTC went down for a short time, which triggered a second waterfall, which is a manifestation of lack of confidence in the market. The willingness to buy bottoms in a short time is extremely low, causing insufficient liquidity in the market. The dealer only needs a small amount of funds to manipulate the market and let ordinary people Retail investors are even more afraid to enter the market, forming a vicious circle.
We look at the lack of market confidence from two aspects of data. one isQuotes of mainstream currencies and popular altcoins, as shown in the figure below, shows the K-line trend of BTC, ETH, EOS and ONT for more than a year.
From a long-term perspective, BTC is still at a high level. Looking at the K-line trend alone, there is still room and scope for a decline, which means thatThe market is not stable, which naturally aggravates the wait-and-see mood of investors. The prices of mainstream currencies such as ETH and EOS have reached the starting point of the outbreak at the beginning of the year, which means thatInvestors who have entered the market for more than half a year are in a state of quilt. However, second- and third-tier currencies such as ONT and more altcoins are about to reach or have reached their lowest point in a year, and investors have suffered heavy losses.
The current market situation, for most investors, is no longer a question of thinking about earning more or less, but thinking about how to return their capitalthe other is
the other isExchange's daily data, the figure below shows the DAU (Daily Active Users) data of exchanges counted by BlockTrending, including Binance, Coinbase, Huobi and Gate exchanges.
It can be seen intuitively from the data chart that since April-May this year, with the rise of the BTC market, DAU has shown an increase trend, but since July, DAU has begun to drop sharply, and now it has dropped to freezing point, which means thatUser activity decreases, the number of transactions and desires decrease,we know,
we know,Users are the lifeblood of exchanges, the decrease in user activity is also the first to be perceived by the exchange. In order to alleviate the problem of user loss, the exchange has done a lot of work this year, issuing platform tokens, launching higher-quality new currency projects, launching IEO to create new projects to give back to currency holders, and reducing the circulation of platform tokens by locking positions and destroying them , launched regular wealth management products, contract trading platforms and other retained users, and invited friends to rebate commissions to attract new users.
Recently, exchanges including Binance, Huobi, Okex, Matcha, BIKI and other exchanges launched the "Community Node Program" in cooperation with KOLs in the currency circle.The purpose is to retain and attract new users, which reflects the current plight of the exchange, such as user loss, decline in transaction volume, poor currency liquidity, and decline in revenue capabilities such as handling fees。
If the previous strategy of the exchange is still effective, its platform currency has been rising all the way this year, and can maintain a high level sideways. So now that the overall market is going down,The platform currency is facing serious selling pressure from currency holders, and it is difficult to improve in a short time。
Operation suggestion:
Operation suggestion:
BTC: Daily level,The overall trend is arranged in a short position, which is not optimistic. If the big positive line or rebound trend cannot be closed within this week, the market may continue to fall and find a bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of 7400-7700 US dollars, and the daily line pressure is around 8800 US dollars on the MA half-year line.
At the 4-hour line level, it fell again in heavy volume last night. It encountered a support rebound near 7,700 US dollars. In a short period of time, it tested the support of 7,700-7,800 US dollars twice. The bottom was confirmed, and there were signs of stabilization. The MACD indicator formed a short-term golden cross, and the box is above the 0 axis. It is expected to start a rebound trend. The upper pressure is at 8,400 US dollars, but attention should be paid to the strength of the energy. In the case of insufficient energy, the rebound will be limited.
ETH: The trend at the daily line level, although the needle is inserted downward, but from the perspective of the general trend, if it can stop falling at 165 US dollars, the probability of a subsequent rebound is high. The strong support below is in the range of 130-150 US dollars, and the pressure is 180 US dollars.
LTC: It bottomed out twice in a short period of time, but it was successfully withdrawn later. The support of 50 US dollars can be held, and there is a high probability that there will be a rebound in the market, and the rebound pressure will be 60-70 US dollars.
BCH: The point around $210 is more important. If it can be held, it is expected to rebound upwards. The upper pressure is $240. If it cannot be held, it may go to the range of $150-170.
EOS: Short-term oscillating trend, daily line level, if it can stand firm at 2.8 dollars, it is expected to rebound to 3-3.5 dollars, and the strong support below is around 2.2 dollars.
XRP: The trend is organized between small groups. If it can close above 0.25 US dollars in the short term, it is hoped that it will go up to repair the market. The key point of intervention is still after the market reaches 0.28-0.3 US dollars.
TRX: Short-term weak rebound trend, the breakthrough point is at 0.0136 US dollars. Although there is good news in the short term, but now the general nature of marketing benefits has no effect on the currency price. Wait for the market to stabilize at 0.016 US dollars before considering entering the market opportunity.
ETC: The range of 4.5-5 US dollars shrinks and organizes the trend, waiting for the direction given by the big pie.
Platform currency: The overall trend is in sync with the broader market. In the short term, pay attention to the support and pressure breakthroughs of key points. Only after breaking through the pressure level, it is recommended to follow up with small positions. BNB short-term support is $14-15, pressure is $18-20; HT short-term support is $2.9-3, pressure is $3.4-3.7; OKB short-term support is $2, pressure is $2.3-2.5; GT short-term support is $0.5, pressure is $0.6, Although there is a short-term buyback plan, it is hard to change the trend.
Altcoins: A small number of altcoins have rebounded strongly, but it is not recommended to catch up, because the depth of the coins is too poor, the liquidity is insufficient, and a small trading volume may lead to a huge increase, and it is difficult to sell. You can pay due attention to the currencies that are still going strong under the market waterfall.
