Smart people are "fixed votes", but fools are "buy bottoms"

1. Eyes are full of "buying the bottom" theory

Today's market continues yesterday's weakness, which is simply unsightly for most investors. BTC even fell below the $8,000 line for a time, and it was unknown as of writing, barely standing at $8,400.

We found a very interesting phenomenon: almost all the media in the currency circle published articles on such a market with titles like "Should we buy the bottom?", "How big is the risk of buying the bottom now?".... In short, for any article involving operation, the title must and will only write "buying the bottom".

2. Buying the bottom is speculation, and fixed investment is a strategy

In our article yesterday, we wrote that "such a market is a great thing for our regular investors...".

Linking these two things, I want to highlight that,The current good time is for "fixed investment", not for "buying the bottom".

In fact, we have always opposed the theory of "buying the bottom", and we have always believed that it is impossible for the vast majority of people, including us, to copy the bottom.

Why is it impossible for most people to copy to the end? Because the market cannot be predicted, if the market can be predicted, we can know the bottom of a certain market, then we can make a steady profit without losing as long as we invest all we have.

If investing is so simple, no one will lose money. If no one loses money, where will the money come from?

We don't doubt that there are very few genius-level figures who can predict the market, but that is just an example and does not have universal significance.

Although we cannot predict the bottom of the market, we can estimate whether the current price is at a low level based on historical experience and data. We can roughly judge the risk of the current price relative to the high level of the market, and then measure our own tolerance based on this risk ability.

When we think that the price will go lower and the risk will be smaller, we can start investing in the market. However, since we cannot predict how low the price will eventually be, we can only put our own funds into the market in batches, which is called fixed investment.

So how long will our scheduled vote last? How much should be set for each scheduled investment? This can only be based on the actual situation of each person, to find an acceptable balance between spreading risks and maximizing returns.

If the economic strength is strong, we can set the time and frequency of fixed investment longer, so that we can have a greater chance of catching the bottom of the market to obtain greater returns; if the strength is weaker, then we can only reduce the time and frequency of fixed investment Frequency, if you catch an extremely limited price point, you may miss the bottom of the market and get a slightly smaller profit.

In the investment market, if you want to make long-term profits, you must rely on strategies rather than tricks. Bottom-hunting is opportunistic, and fixed investment is the long-term strategy. It is impossible to survive for a long time by speculating in the investment market. Only by adhering to a rational long-term strategy can we continue to make profits and remain invincible in the market.

Therefore, for us ordinary investors, the idea of ​​"buying the bottom" should be completely abandoned.

When we see a low price again, no matter how low it is, what comes to mind should never be "buying the bottom" but should be changed to "fixed investment".

Now that the market is at this point, I feel more at ease. I don’t need to spend too much time and energy thinking about the current strategy in investment. I just need to adopt the simplest strategy that we have been repeatedly emphasizing: fixed investment includes BTC and Several mainstream currencies including Ethereum.

3. A bold guess on the market

Combining the current market and looking forward to the future, we make a bold guess about the development of the market: this big waterfall is likely to be the last drop when the market recovers.

Since the start of this bear market for digital currencies in 2018, there have been no waves in the whole year of 2018, only falling and falling, until after the Spring Festival this year, there was a slightly larger rise.

And this rise has been adjusted since June. Before this catastrophe, taking BTC as an example, it fell from a high of $13,000 to around $10,000, an adjustment of less than 30%. No matter how you look at it, it feels that the strength is not strong enough.

If the strength is not strong enough, it is not enough to wash out the unstable chips. If the chips are not washed out, how to accumulate momentum for the subsequent rise of the market?

I even think that the BTC that I estimated in yesterday's article will fall to $6,900 or even lower at $6,000 is very likely to be realized, but it is unlikely that it will fall below $6,000.

Because the people who can continue to hold funds below the price of 6,000 US dollars are almost all stalwarts, no matter how they wash the market, they will not leave, and further washing is tantamount to giving cheap chips to these stalwarts, the main force will not be so stupid.

However, from $10,000 to $6,000, this 40% drop will definitely wipe out a large number of speculators who rushed in and holders who are not firm in BTC, until they lose all confidence, until they are completely desperate, Till they leave this sad place disheartened.

And after this smashing, when the main force collects enough chips to pull up again, it will go into battle lightly and stride forward without any burden. If so, it would be a godsend.