When Bitcoin plummets across the board, let me talk to you about these important things
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I am hereQuotes for September 9mentioned inBTC has been in a triangle arrangement (9,000-14,000 USD range) after the third big rebound this year. When it does not break through the triangle range, the overall bearish trend remains unchanged, the market is not very good, even if the mainstream currency has a collective rebound during the period, this view still remains unchanged.
The waterfall this morning is consideredOfficially breaking the triangle shape, the overall market has shifted from a trend of high level consolidation that lasted for more than three months to a mid-term deep adjustment situationsecondary title
1. Reasons for the sharp drop in the market
Every time the market plummets, market participants will always look for reasons as psychological comfort. Various conspiracy theories are staged in turn, and there are many vows, but I always feel that there is some imposition of cause and effect. In the currency circle, a market with relatively weak supervision, the game among participants has become more unpredictable, and the phenomenon of market decline caused by various black swan events emerges in an endless stream, which is hard to guard against.
In this case, the uncertainty of the future market is even more unpredictable. The reason for the decline can be roughly seen as the correction and consolidation since the three rounds of rising market this year. The high level has been fluctuating for so long, but both the long and the short are consuming strength, preparing for the halving of the market next year by washing the market down. Coupled with the excessive decline, the result of the superposition of serial liquidation and leverage liquidation in the futures market.
Another important reason is the overall liquidity deviation of the digital currency market. The insufficient number of trading users leads to insufficient currency depth, and the occurrence of some smashed orders may lead to a waterfall trend and form a linkage benefit. At the same time, when the profit-making effect is no longer there, investors’ willingness to trade is extremely low. Quantitative trading robots on various exchanges frequently place orders. When encountering unexpected market conditions, it will cause bugs and cause exchange currency prices to be linked.
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2. Futures spot price difference
There have been a few times this year that the prices of futures contracts and spot market prices differ greatly. We must be especially cautious when facing this phenomenon. When the contract basis is too large, you need to pay attention to potential risks, because the price of the contract is based on the spot price. Even if the short-term difference is too large, it will return to the spot price before and after the delivery date, causing large fluctuations in the currency price.
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3. About bargain hunting
In recent months, many friends have asked when it is possible to buy the bottom. My suggestion all along is that, in addition to the regular investment without considering the currency price, you need to wait in a volatile market. Before the market halving, there must be a wave of currency price retracement. Only after the currency price squats, there is a high probability of an explosion.
Yesterday, I analyzed the 7 reasons why the BTC currency price has good value support and consensus. It suggested that you can start to consider building positions around 9,000-9,300 US dollars to plan for the halving market next year. It should have taken about 20-30% of the BTC positions. Compared with the previous positions opened by many people above 10,000 US dollars, the cost of holding positions has been greatly reduced.
The previous conservative strategy of building positions is still effective, because we cannot predict where the bottom of BTC is, but we are worried about missing the opportunity to buy bottoms.Instead of waiting for the market to open a position at a lower point, it is better to lay out in advance to grasp the certainty. Although there is a possibility that BTC will continue to fall in the short term, our buying positions may be covered, but it is only a short-term covered position. We build positions in batches (not stud), guaranteedEvery time the market plummets to a certain extent, we have the opportunity to reduce the average cost of holding positions by opening positions, Once the broader market starts to rebound effectively, it is very natural to return to the capital.
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4. About the contract
According to Coin, within 24 hours, the liquidation amount of the OKEx exchange has reached 920 million USDT (about 6.52 billion yuan), and the liquidation amount of BitMEx has reached 3.6 billion yuan.
In today's sharp drop, there are too many liquidation orders, and the above data is cruel. For many contract players, the small profit of this year's operation was blown out in one go. This is the cruelty of the contract market. Before BTC fluctuated in the range of 9800-10500 US dollars for nearly a month, too many retail investors entered the market to play contracts, and the probability of profit was quite high, but as I said,Be careful of the dealer's layout of boiling frogs in warm water. It's just a bait thrown by the dealer. Once fattened up, there will be a sudden attack to cut leekstherefore
thereforePlay futures contracts as little as possible, and try not to touch them before you understand the rules. In the spot market, even if you buy at a loss, you still have the hope of getting back your money, butIn the contract market, the final outcome of most players will only be out of the gamesecondary title
5. About altcoin swap
After this plunge, everyone realized again that BTC fell by 10%, mainstream currencies fell by 20%, and altcoins could fall by more than 30%-50%. visibleThe resilience of altcoins is really poorYes, there are few people playing, and the trading depth is too poor. As long as the mainstream currency falls sharply, it is difficult for the altcoin to avoid the fate of the waterfall.
For altcoins, remember this formula: "Wait = quilt cover". Many players who held altcoins at the beginning of the year should have a deep memory of this. At the beginning of the year, they hoarded altcoins and continued to build altcoins when BTC and big pie rose independently. What I want is to wait for the altcoin in my hand to rise and return to the capital, and then change the car, but the hopes are shattered again and again, which leads to the altcoin in my hand not running away, and now I am in the tragic situation of being locked in by the altcoin.
When the altcoins were trapped in the early days, it could be said that they could switch to BTC and mainstream currencies at any time, but now that the quilts are so heavy, and under the current situation that ten out of ten, it becomes meaningless and necessary to cut the meat again. Therefore,Those who still hold altcoins in their hands should consider gradually reducing their positions when they wait for a reboundOperation suggestion:
Operation suggestion:
BTC: This wave of heavy volume fell in the early hours of this morning, BTC’s daily triangle consolidation pattern completely broke, and then it will enter a mid-term deep correction trend, with strong support at the bottom in the range of 7,400-7,800 US dollars, which is the third rising market this year. . The upper small pressure is in the range of 8800-9000 US dollars on the MA180 half-year line.
From the short-term futures contract data, the long-short ratio has dropped from 2:1 before the sharp drop to around 1:1 now, and the total position of BTC contracts has decreased by 35% in a short period of time, which means thatThe long-short forces in the market are gradually becoming more balanced, and the market may enter a range-bound trend. Waiting for the adjustment of the strength of both sides, a new offensive will be launched。
Judging from the 15-minute short-term trend, BTC experienced 2 rounds of large-scale declines, and the second round was successfully withdrawn, which means that the bottom-hunting power below 8,000 is relatively strong. At present, it is in the small range of 8200-8760 US dollars, and there is no more participation in the volume. The volatile trend continues, and the short-term is prudent to buy bottoms, and enter the market after waiting for the signal of the market to stop falling. Those who built positions in batches before did not receive positions below 8,000 US dollars because of the sudden market in the early morning, they can fill up their second positions at 7,500-8,200 US dollars near the bottom range, but still pay attention to the potential downside risks of the market, and do not fill up the positions .
ETH: The daily line level is broken, and the needle is inserted downwards. The short-term test is the support of 165 US dollars, and the strong support below is 130-155 US dollars. Under the premise that BTC fails to stop falling and stabilize, it is prudent to buy bottoms.
LTC: The short-term waterfall is serious, and it has reached the position before the sharp drop in early November last year. The support around $50 is very critical. If it falls below again, the market will fall into a bottomless mode. Pay attention to risks and wait and see in the short term.
BCH: A short-term drop of 25%, with an amplitude of more than 50%, is theoretically oversold. In the short term, it can recover more than 240 US dollars. If it can be recovered, the market still has hope to go up. If it cannot be recovered, it will be in the range of 180-230 US dollars. callback.
EOS: It fell from USD 4 to USD 2.35, a short-term drop of 58%, indicating that the currency price lacks effective support, the futures market is heavily manipulated by dealers, and the spot market has no depth. In the short term, it will fluctuate around 2.8 US dollars, with a range of 2.35-3 US dollars.
XRP: Following the sharp drop of the market, it once dropped to a historical low of 0.2 US dollars. In the short term, it can effectively rebound to above 0.25 US dollars, otherwise it will still face the risk of falling.
TRX: Like XRP, it has bottomed out after a sharp drop, with the lowest drop to a historical low near US$0.011. The short-term market has not stabilized, and it is not recommended to participate until it recovers US$0.016.
ETC: The short-term decline exceeds 20%, and the short-term support is around US$4. If it can be effectively recovered above US$5 in the short-term, there is still hope.
Platform currency: Following the sharp drop of the market, short-term trends have broken positions one after another. During August-September, it is always recommended that everyone reduce their positions, because it is difficult to have an independent market. This wave of slump can be regarded as a consolidation trend from a high level, entering a downward channel, short-term attention to the support of several key points, BNB is in the range of 14-15 US dollars, HT is in the range of 2.9-3 US dollars, OKB is in the range of 2 US dollars, GT Pay attention to whether the $0.55 can be effectively recovered.
Altcoins: When BTC fell by 10%, altcoins also fell by 10-30% relative to BTC, and the overall decline was in the 20-50% range. It was once again verified that the liquidity and market depth of altcoins are extremely poor, and it is not recommended to take heavy positions participate.
