Saudi Aramco was attacked, and the rise in digital currencies further fermented
1. Saudi Aramco under attack
On September 14, local time, two oil facilities of the Saudi National Petroleum Company, or Aramco, were attacked by 10 drones, causing Saudi Arabia to suspend the supply of about 5.7 million barrels of crude oil production per day, which accounted for half of Saudi production capacity. 50%, 5% of the world's daily oil consumption.
2. The chain reaction of the global political economy
The attack on the "heart" of Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply system has sparked global concerns about tight oil supplies. International oil prices reacted quickly, and the opening was soaring. The North Sea Brent crude oil futures soared by nearly 20% at the opening, the largest increase in 28 years, and the US WTI crude oil futures also rose by 15%.
Domestically, crude oil futures rose rapidly at the opening of the market. In the A-share market, oil-related sectors such as oil services, shale gas, oil and gas reform, and petrochemicals rose sharply, while the civil aviation sector fell sharply due to rising oil prices.
In this regard, U.S. President Trump said that he approved the release of the U.S. strategic crude oil reserve to meet market demand.
According to relevant laws, only when the domestic energy supply or import of the United States is blocked, or when the oil price rises sharply due to the oil embargo, which may seriously threaten national security or economic operation, the President of the United States has the right to order the use of strategic petroleum reserves.
The use of the strategic petroleum reserve will not immediately boost global supply, because it must be removed from storage before being sold on the market, a process that can take about two weeks.
Since 1975, when then-President Ford signed a law establishing the first emergency crude oil reserve in the United States, the United States has only used the strategic crude oil reserve three times.
The first was in 1991 when the U.S. struck Iraq during Operation Desert Storm, which cut oil production; the second was in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina destroyed oil infrastructure on the U.S. Gulf Coast; and the most recent was in June 2011 in Libya Civil unrest has disrupted global oil exports.
After the incident broke out, Yemen's Houthi armed forces claimed responsibility for it, while the United States pointed out that the real behind-the-scenes manipulator was Iran.
3. Impact on my country's economic situation
Analysis of this incident by many domestic media focuses on how long it will take for the oil supply to be restored. Petroleum is the blood of modern industry. If the supply of oil is not guaranteed, the prices of all industrial products will rise across the board, which will undoubtedly make my country's current price situation worse.
In my previous article "Surge in pork, will it affect the digital currency market? As analyzed in ", the current price of meat in my country will rise in an all-round way with the soaring price of pork, which will eventually affect the entire price. This will put pressure on my country's monetary policy in the second half of the year, making it difficult to tighten or relax. Difficult.
In this case, once there is another problem with the oil supply, the price of our country will further go out of control, which may force the People's Bank of China to take measures to tighten the money supply in order to suppress inflation, but this will bring the problems that are already facing The many testing economic conditions bring more pressure.
Not only our country, but countries all over the world will face this dilemma economically.
4. The possible detonation of the crisis of war
However, in addition to causing global concerns about oil supply, this incident may also trigger another more dangerous disaster, that is, the war crisis in the Middle East.
Before the incident broke out, the United States and Iran had completely torn faces, and incidents of both sides wiping out their guns broke out from time to time. In this incident, the United States once again pointed the finger at Iran, which further tensed the relationship between the two countries.
The Yemeni Houthi armed forces that claimed responsibility for the incident have been under comprehensive attack from Saudi Arabia, but it seems that Saudi Arabia's sophisticated American equipment and the "local tyrant" army maintained by huge expenditures have never been able to effectively combat this guerrilla with millet and rifles. And just after the incident, the Houthi armed forces warned on September 16 that "Saudi Aramco will be attacked again at any time."
Saudi Arabia, which suffered heavy losses in the incident, will never let it go, and it is very likely that it will also turn its guns to Iran, the behind-the-scenes supporter of the Houthi armed forces and the feud.
Iran is now at the center of the vortex, and the war in the Middle East is on the verge of breaking out.
Iran once said that once extreme conditions appeared in the Middle East, it would block the Strait of Holmes and cut off 40% of the global oil supply. If it develops to that point, it will be a disaster for the whole world.
5. Impact on digital currency investment
After the outbreak of the black swan incident, gold once jumped, but now it has calmed down again; the overall market of digital currencies is also calm.
But all these factors that may detonate the market at any time are constantly fermenting, and they are constantly approaching the critical point. The current situation is very similar to the "time is quiet" before the storm.
As long as it is horizontal, it is as high as it is vertical. It seems that the event that should have detonated the market did not detonate the market. It is not that the event has failed, but that it is constantly accumulating energy. Once the energy is accumulated to the point where it can no longer be suppressed, a big market will break out.
The current "time is quiet and good" is our precious opportunity for layout.
