History of changes between "mainstream currency" and "altcoin"

The first two articles shared with you my views on "mainstream currency" and "altcoin", including how to define "mainstream currency" and "altcoin", how to examine and invest in "mainstream currency" and "altcoin".

My views are summarized as follows:

1）Investors should focus on the observation and tracking of new fields and new applications. On the one hand, this allows us to maintain sensitivity to the latest developments in this field, and on the other hand, we should pay close attention to the new "altcoins" that come with new applications. , Once you are optimistic, you can lay out as soon as possible.

2）Due to the high risk of "altcoins", we can only allocate a small part of our funds to "altcoins", while most of our funds should be placed in "mainstream coins".

1. Historical data of "mainstream coins" and "alt coins"

So when we allocate the main funds in the "mainstream currency", does it mean that the "mainstream currency" can sit back and relax?

Let's look at the following three pictures:

The above three pictures are all selected from the historical records of coinmarketcap, which are September 15, 2013, September 18, 2016 and September 8, 2019, respectively, and the top ten currencies in the overall market value of digital currencies.

The historical records of Coinmarketcap started in 2013, and it has been exactly 6 years since this year, so we choose a historical record every three years; now it is September, and the latest historical record available on coinmarketcap is September 8th, so we choose historical The specific date of the record was as close as possible to September 8th, and the records of the above three dates were selected.

We use this method to eliminate human subjective interference and let historical data tell us the truth.

We only selected the top ten currencies listed in these three data charts, because the top ten currencies must cover (not necessarily all) most of the "mainstream currencies" recognized by the industry and investors at that time.

2. History of changes between "mainstream currency" and "altcoin"

Through these three data charts, let's take a look at the changes of "mainstream coins" and "alt coins" in various historical stages.

2013 was the early stage of the development of digital currency. Almost all the top ten coins in that era focused on payment and transfer applications. There was not much difference in technology and application scenarios among the various coins, which belonged to the period of brutal competition. .

Therefore, after the baptism of time, in 2016, three years later, we saw that among the top ten coins in 2013, only BTC was left, Litecoin and Ripple were still in the top ten, and the remaining seven coins were already in the top ten. Not in the top ten.

So who are the rising stars among the top ten coins in 2016? It can be roughly divided into three categories:

One is the Ethereum system, including Ethereum (ETH) and Ethereum Classic (ETC);

One category is privacy coins, including Monero and Dash;

Then there are some emerging areas of exploration, including the emerging decentralized storage application MAID, the decentralized application platform STEEM, and the smart contract currency NEM imitating Ethereum.

In 2016, with the development of blockchain technology, the application scenarios gradually enriched, and at least one or two digital currencies appeared in each application scenario.

However, some application scenarios did not develop ideally due to various restrictions; or because it was found that the actual effect was not obvious in later practice, so some promising "mainstream coins" were eliminated.

Therefore, in 2019, three years later, we see that only 5 of the top ten coins in 2016 are still in the top ten. In addition to BTC, Litecoin and Ripple, there are more than 2016. There are two emerging categories that are recognized by the industry: Ethereum, which represents smart contracts, and Monero, which represents privacy currencies.

So who are the other 5 coins that squeezed into the top ten? It can be roughly divided into four categories:

One is BTC fork currency, including BCH and BSV;

One is the stable currency USDT;

One is that the exchange platform is better than BNB;

Then there is EOS, the strongest competitor of Ethereum.

BTC's forked currency has its own traffic to some extent and some inherent advantages of BTC, so we think it is a special type of currency and not a new application.

EOS is closely related to BM's personal IP to some extent, so it is not a new application.

The stable currency USDT and the exchange platform currency BNB are newly born application scenarios since 2016.

In the records of 2019, we have seen that Ethereum’s fork currency ETC and MAID, STEEM and NEM, the “mainstream currencies” in new fields that were once promising, gradually lost their halo and gave way to rising stars.

3. The guiding significance of the history of "mainstream" and "shanzhai" changes to our investors

These three historical pictures fully demonstrate the changes of "mainstream currency" and "altcoin" to us:

For coins that have entered the "mainstream" from "cottages", when a new scene emerges, the altcoins born with it are often not obvious at the beginning, and may even be extremely unfavorable, but when they change from "cottages" "The process of entering the "mainstream" will bring amazing investment opportunities.

These valuable opportunities will be missed if investors do not pay attention to these new areas.

As far as "mainstream currencies" are concerned, it does not mean that investment is foolproof. It is possible that certain fields that are currently optimistic will gradually prove to be "pseudo-demand" in the future development, and then the "mainstream currency" in this field will gradually become a "cottage".

Even if a certain field is favored by everyone, only a few coins that can really survive may become "mainstream".

Therefore, it is recommended that when investors invest in mainstream coins, in the recognized "mainstream" field, it is enough to focus on one or two top coins, and try not to exceed three, because from historical records, there are very few leading coins in a certain field. There are more than three mainstream coins that can survive for a long time.