Bitcoin plummeted 500 points in the early morning, and we need to pay attention to several important indicators in the futures market
In the early hours of this morning, Bitcoin plummeted again, falling by more than 5%. Like the previous method, choose a time period when most people don’t pay attention to the market, and resolve the battle in tens of minutes. TypicalFutures Market Harvesting Tactics。
For the digital currency market, as mentioned beforeComprehensively analyze the market from 6 aspects, including fundamentals, technicals, funds, policies, news and market sentiment. From August to September, the bitcoin market fluctuated at a high level, the news was basically silent, and the market sentiment was too extreme. We can only analyze and predict the market from a technical perspective.
But when we use technical indicators, we need to pay attention to two points:
1、Technical indicators are lagging and will lag behind the K-line trend。
2、When Qiangzhuang controls the market, technical indicators such as the K line lose their meaning, and what is considered is the game behind it。
For the current bitcoin trend, K-line technical indicators can be used when it rises, because most of the rises are driven slowly, the fluctuations in the market are not large, and the technical indicators have strong reference significance.
But when it fell, the technical indicators failed,On the one hand, it is the hysteresis of the technical indicators themselves, and another important point is the problem of market manipulation. The market is completely dominated by the dealers in the futures market, The sharp drop is completed within a few minutes-tens of minutes, the signs of man-made manipulation are too obvious, and the purpose of the dealer is to blow up the order.
In this case, it is necessary for us to combine the spot market and the futures market, and analyze the intention of the dealer behind it through data. Compared with the quantitative transaction brushing and false trading volume in the spot market, the probability of cheating in the futures market is relatively low (the pin insertion behavior of the exchange is not considered here), mainly based on two points:
1、Holding a position requires a margin；
2、The total number of long and short orders in the futures market is 1:1, a short contract must correspond to a long contract.
Therefore, the possibility of participants cheating is reduced. On the other hand, if the exchange itself cheats, there may be a unilateral market with a strong force to squeeze short or buy more, and the exchange may suffer heavy losses. If the exchange is too serious, The data of most exchanges is often inconsistent, and the reputation of the exchange will be affected, which will cause the loss of users and the loss outweighs the gain.
For ordinary investors, it is necessary to pay attention toSeveral indicators in the futures market：
Total open positions: the sum of all open positions of both long and short parties within a certain period of time;
Ratio of long and short positions: the ratio of the total number of long positions to the total number of short positions holding the corresponding currency contract within a certain period of time;
Transaction volume: the total transaction volume of a certain currency per unit time
Regarding the position, trading volume, price and the number of long and short positions, you can refer to the application rules in the figure below to comprehensively judge the situation of the long-short game in the market.
The picture below is the big data indicator of the OKEX futures contract. At around 2:00 last night, the ratio of the number of long-short positions decreased significantly. Because of the sharp drop, many positions were closed by long positions, and the number of short positions increased. Correspondingly, contract positions The sudden decrease in the total amount and the sharp increase in the transaction volume.
After the market plummeted, the long-to-short ratio slowly increased, and the total amount of positions also increased slowly, which reflected that the number of new entrants who were long was increasing, which meant that investors had short-term bullish expectations for the market outlook. From the perspective of daily positions, it has been a trend of increasing volatility since May, reflecting the fact that investors are optimistic about the market and trading is active. The probability of a deep decline in a short period of time is low.
Operation suggestion:
Operation suggestion:
BTC: The sharp drop in the early hours of this morning, the daily line level was negative, and the currency price fell below the MA60 daily moving average for a short time. If it cannot be recovered in a short period of time, the moving average will form a strong suppression, which is not conducive to the rebound of the market outlook. At the 4-hour line level, yesterday when it rose slightly and hit 11,000 USD, the price of the coin suffered a short-term retracement due to short selling pressure. It is currently fluctuating in a narrow range of 10,200-10,400 USD. There are signs of a stop in the market, but the volume is not obvious. In the short term, you can buy low and sell high in small positions, and pay attention to stop loss when it falls below 10,000 US dollars.
Mainstream currencies: The short-term plunge was severe, and it fell to the bottom of the box again. From the perspective of the disk, the spot market is not strong enough to take over, and it is difficult to bring an independent market. The main battlefield is still in the futures market, and the overall trend follows the same rise and fall of the market , The spot short-term position should not be too heavy, focusing on ETH and BCH.
The ETH shock range is 160-180 US dollars, and only after breaking through 185 US dollars will it usher in a rapid upward trend; LTC is oscillating in the 60-70 US dollar range, and the downward trend at the daily level has not changed. In the short term, pay attention to the breakthrough of 80 US dollars. Wait and see before breaking through; BCH is sorting out the trend in the short-term range of 270-300 US dollars, and after standing at 300 US dollars, the rising market is established, and the short-term can be bought at a low level; A safer entry range is to stand firmly at $4; the overall trend of XRP and TRX is weak, and it is not recommended to open positions in the short to medium term.
Platform coins: The overall decline is relatively weak. Compared with mainstream coins and altcoins, there is still a certain currency price support and user base. BNB supports USD 20 in the short term, and the pressure to return to the upward trend is USD 25; HT is in the range of USD 3.7-4.2 in the short term; OKB is fluctuating in the range of USD 2.3-2.87 in the short term, and it needs to break through USD 3 to return to the upward trend. GT's short-term volatility is relatively large, with a support of 0.7 US dollars and a pressure of 0.8 US dollars, which is greatly affected by the news.
Altcoins: There have been short-term surges in individual currencies again, mainly concentrated on the OKex platform. You can follow the previous "altcoin strategy" to explore, but it is not recommended to chase high.
