Market analysis: Bitcoin is now making large transfers again. Is it going to smash the market this time?

QKL123

特邀专栏作者

2019-09-06 17:49 (UTC+8)

This article is about 4144 words, reading the full article takes about 6 minutes

For a short time, Bitcoin rose slightly, altcoins were weakly linked, and the market fluctuated mainly in ranges.

AI Summary

For a short time, Bitcoin rose slightly, altcoins were weakly linked, and the market fluctuated mainly in ranges.

Abstract: Bakkt's institutions will open bitcoin custody services today, preparing for the launch of bitcoin futures contracts on September 23. The large transfers on the chain that just appeared may be related to this event, most likely due to the centralized arrangement of address assets. For a short time, Bitcoin rose slightly, altcoins were weakly linked, and the market fluctuated mainly in ranges.

According to the statistics of QKL123, at 13:00 on September 6, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,945.905 billion yuan, with a 24-hour total market value increase or decrease of +0.13%, the total turnover was 349.562 billion yuan, and the total turnover change was -2.46% , the market activity decreased slightly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 13621.74 points, with a 24-hour change of +0.88%; the Alternative sentiment index was 43, a slight increase from yesterday (41), and the market sentiment remained fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets by market value (excluding USDT), BNB has the largest 24-hour increase (+2.18%), and EOS has the largest 24-hour decrease (-2.29%). The 24-hour change of BTC was +0.87%, and the proportion of market value (69.99%) was slightly higher than that of yesterday (69.61%), hitting a new high since 2018. The 24-hour change of ETH was -1.51%, and the proportion of market value (6.89%) was higher than Yesterday (6.99%) fell slightly, and the risk aversion sentiment in the market is still high. The 24-hour price change of USDT was -0.01%. The market value (288.74) has increased from yesterday (287.61). The net inflow of funds today is 64.8914 million yuan, which is a significant increase from yesterday (8.0409 million yuan). The ChaiNext USDT OTC discount and premium index reported 100.03 points, with a 24-hour change of -0.03%.

In the past day, the relative value of global Bitcoin Google searches (peak value 81) has decreased from the previous period (peak value 87), approaching a seven-day low. The top seven most popular countries and regions are Nigeria (100), Ghana (48), Brazil (44), South Africa (41), Austria (40), Germany (41) and Switzerland (38). Among them, the search volume of related queries bakkt increased (140%) and ranked first, which is related to the opening of Bakkt's bitcoin custody business today.

Analyst’s point of view: According to bitinfocharts data, at 11:30 today, 84,508,970 currency days were destroyed at block height 593,468. There were multiple large transfers, and a total of 94,504 BTC was transferred from multiple addresses to addresses beginning with 37XuV.

Among them, the address with the largest transfer amount is the address starting with 1JCe8, and a total of 51,000 BTC has been transferred from this address. Observing the address at the beginning of 1JCe8, it can be found that the original BTC at this address was mainly transferred in from August 2016 to November 2016 (the associated transfer-out address is marked as wallet: 22186577), this time a large number of concentrated transfers out is history The second time recorded, the last centralized transfer was in August 2017, during which a total of 71,178 BTC was transferred.

1. Spot BTC market

1. Funding

2. Fundamentals

2. Spot ETH market

1. Funding

2. Fundamentals

3. Spot LTC market

1. Funding

2. Fundamentals

4. Spot EOS market

1. Funding

2. Fundamentals

1. Long term (1-3 years)

5. Analyst strategy

1. Long term (1-3 years)

2. Midline (January-March)

3. Short term (1-3 days)

Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) is composed of the most representative Tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing blockchain global market, to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

6. Appendix - Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

Fear & Greed Index (Fear & Greed Index) reflects changes in market sentiment, 0 means "extreme fear", 100 means "extreme greed". The components of this indicator include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaires (15%), market share (10%), and trends (10%).

4. Google Search Trends

ChaiNext USDT OTC Discount Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

4. Google Search Trends

7. The number of active addresses on the chain

5. Net capital inflow (outflow)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between inflows and outflows of global exchanges (not excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the transaction volume when it rises is counted as inflow of funds, and the turnover when it falls is counted as outflow of funds.

6. Number of currency days destroyed

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days bitcoins are held. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. Classification of the number of BTC coin days destroyed: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 million to 100 million is the larger value; 10 million to 50 million is the median value; less than or equal to 10 million is the small value value. Classification of the number of LTC coins destroyed per day: the maximum value is greater than or equal to 500 million; the larger value is 100 million to 500 million; the median value is 50 million to 100 million; the smaller value is less than or equal to 50 million.

7. The number of active addresses on the chain

Data Sources:

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

QKL123 (Blockchain 123) is a comprehensive data service provider integrating blockchain website navigation, digital currency market, and blockchain data.

Data Sources:

August 2019