Odaily Frontline | ETH/BTC fell back to the price of 3 years ago because it failed to realize the vision of "world computer"?
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Odaily Translator |
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Odaily Translator |
Kyle Samani, co-founder of crypto hedge fund Multicoin Capital, said that the reason ETH/BTC performed so poorly is that it "failed to meet expectations."After raising $75 million from investors including Andreessen Horowitz and PayPal's first Chief Operating Officer (COO) David Sacks, Samani's fund appears to be focusing on new projects/blockchains that might solve scalability problems.However, he is publishing
The following point of view
After that, Multicoin Capital is bullish on ETH/USD and BTC/USD:
This is a fallacy in logic. What's interesting about this logic is that it embraces the fact that both ETH and BTC are trying to be money, and money has no value (it's priced).
beta coefficient
(Beta coefficient) is an indicator to measure the degree to which the price change of a certain (class) asset is affected by the average change of all asset prices in the market.
Here's an interesting logic: no, these things don't necessarily correlate. Although it's easy to fool yourself into thinking it does, especially if you're a tech-focused person (as are most ETH bulls).
The biggest problem with ETH/BTC over the past 6 months (and in my opinion at least the next 12-24 months) is that it has not lived up to its expectations: becoming the world computer.
Even the scaled-down version of the vision — DeFi chains — clearly won’t work on Ethereum 1.0. There just isn't enough throughput to handle 5x more current user demands.
Reasonable observers are looking at ETH, seeing a lot of hope dashed (Raiden, Plasma, sharding, no interest in tokenized securities, etc.) and just allocating funds to BTC.
There’s real irony in this — and ETH bulls have been vocal about it. BTC in its current form is impossible to scale. This is clear to all ETH bulls.
So why is BTC not as painful as ETH? Because market expectations are orders of magnitude lower.
The idea of BTC as a settlement layer separate from the payment layer resonates because that's how the world already works, even though that vision is patently silly and assumes the technology stops advancing.
So, for now, the BTC story remains intact despite its long-term fundamental issues, while the ETH story is rather weak. There isn’t much evidence to support that DeFi today is more than just altcoin traders dealing with themselves.
People are tired of waiting. This problem is not unique to ETH. Essentially all 2015-2017 era altcoins are going through the same issue, and they are all likely to continue to shrink relative to BTC during this cycle until they can demonstrate product/market fit and value capture.
Samani He further stated that so far, there is no evidence that any second-layer solutions are effective and/or usable after someone mentions scaling ZK-Snarks.Raul Jordan from Prysmatic Labs, which is developing an ETH 2.0 client, disputed the "broken promise." He said, "The team has never been running at such a high speed, the team is now personally working on client interop, multi-client testnet release, and then mainnet. The confidence in this has never been higher because we Now we really see the light at the end of the tunnel."
Reply saidThe Personal MBAThe explanation that every action has a consequence, and every consequence has another consequence. These are called second-order effects. Every change made to the system has second-order effects that can affect the functionality of the system. Be careful when making changes, they may be contrary to your goals.
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