Market trend in September, focus on 2 changes
In August, the market price rose first and then fell. From around 9400 points at the beginning of the month, it rose all the way to 12,000 US dollars, and then fell into a 20-day-long shock and callback trend. As of September 1 today, the market has returned to The initial position of 9400-9700 US dollars. The suffering market in August has passed, will there be hope for the market in September?
At the daily level, the trend of Bitcoin in recent months is as shown in the figure below, which is similar in shape"M type double top"trend, This is a very common reversal pattern, which generally appears in the market after a long period of rising and finishing at a high level. This large range is the range for dealers to ship. Because the short-term selling pressure is too large, the main funds cannot be successfully exited, so it is called Forced to pull up again and then ship, forming a double top trend.
market in September,Technically, it mainly depends on the neckline position of the double top, that is, the breakthrough of the range of 9000-9400 US dollars. If there is an obvious breakout situation, then the double top pattern is formally formed, and the probability of the subsequent market continuing to decline is relatively highon the contrary,
on the contrary,If the bottom range (9000-9400 USD) can be held, the matching volume can rebound, and time is exchanged for space. The double top pattern may also become a double bottom pattern. In this case, the market is expected to rebound to the previous double top position, which is around 12,000 US dollars. As for the kind of trend, it needs to be determined according to the trend of the disk, and the general time node is in early September.
In terms of news, August was relatively flat, basically there was no important positive/bad news, and there was mainly one in September,On September 23, Bakkt launched physical delivery bitcoin futures. Although there was a warm-up in August, the market has not been fired. If the market makers want to do something in September, they will inevitably start around this incident. Investors can pay attention to the heat of the market and adapt accordingly. The other is the ETC hard fork upgrade on September 13, but the impact is limited to ETC and cannot change the overall situation.
Finally, briefly say the situation,BTC daily level, continue to test the support of MA120 daily moving average, An effective stand still requires quantitative energy to break through. Without quantitative energy, the overall trend is bearish.
However, at the hourly line level, the short position suddenly dropped in the early morning of this morning but was successfully withdrawn by the bulls. This reflects that there is still a certain degree of support on the disk, and the short-term continued to fluctuate and weakly rebound. The upper pressure is at the position where the waterfall started a few days ago, 9800 -10300 USD range. The short-term operation strategy is mainly to buy low and sell high. You can intervene in batches of small orders around 9,500, 9,300, and 9,000 US dollars, but pay attention to stop loss in extreme cases, and the position should not be too heavy.
The trend of mainstream currencies as a whole keeps pace with the broader market. Relatively speaking, the rebound is slightly larger, with a small amount of energy reflected, but the market is still not stable. Only after the major premise of BTC stops falling and stabilizes is established can there be hope to continue rebound.
The platform currency continues to fluctuate, and there is no big market in the short term. Altcoins continue to diverge. Except for a few strong currencies that have rebounded, the overall market is still bearish. It is not recommended to enter the market. Instead, it is mainly to reduce positions when there is a rebound. In addition, if you have any currency you want to analyze, welcome to ask questions in the message area.
