Bitcoin continues to fluctuate, be wary of the crisis in the situation of boiling frogs in warm water
Yesterday, Bitcoin rose for a short period of time, and the amount released at the 1-hour/4-hour level was huge. It once broke through the downward trend line. According to the technical indicators, two possible trends were analyzed. Judging from the disk today, it is the second one. BTC failed to stabilize at 10,400 US dollars within 24 hours, and fell in a short-term trend, and continued to be suppressed by the downward trend line.
Throughout August, there were almost no news factors,The market can only find breakthrough points from the technical side. Yesterday, the hourly line level released a lot of energy and closed a big positive line. It should have been a pattern dominated by bulls. , which is a very strange thing.
Since the short-term trend cannot see the direction, let's think from a larger level of cycle.In the field of financial markets, market makers or large funds can control the short-term market trend, but they cannot control the long-term market operation status, because the market has its own operating rules. After a full game between long and short, more people follow the trend。
At the daily line level, it can be clearly seen that Bitcoin rose strongly from April to June. After failing to reach the top of 14,000 US dollars, it entered theScaling up the trend. Although the currency price fluctuates greatly, the trading volume is gradually shrinking. The willingness of major investors to participate is not strong. Waiting and watching has become the main theme of the market。
If we talk about the daily level, the trend of the market is relatively stable, and the bottom is in the range of 9000-12000 US dollars to consolidate the trend, then the weekly level actually contains a crisis. The figure below is the weekly chart of Bitcoin, the weekly level,MACD dead fork, DIFF breaks through DEA from top to bottom, histogram turns from green to red, which is a strong sell signal.The dead cross of MACD means that the trend of BTC at the weekly level is bearish.
The last time a similar weekly-level MACD dead cross occurred was in early November last year. Everyone knows the subsequent trend. The market plummeted in a short period of time. BTC fell by more than 50% in a few weeks, not to mention other currencies. The average book asset loss of currency holders was more than 60%. A fatal blow to most currency holders, the collapse of faith and confusion followed, and the market confidence was hit.
At this stage, the consolidation trend of Bitcoin in the range of 9500-11000 US dollars is actuallyA entangled situation between the long and short sides, concerns about the uncertainty of market trends, and lack of confidence in the market outlook, the long-short game under such emotions is more of a temptation.The short-term upward attack of the bulls yesterday was a test, to test whether the selling pressure of the shorts was too strong, and whether retail investors would rush into the market to catch up.
As for how the market outlook will go, no one knows. In the short term,There is a serious shortage of funds in the venue. Institutional investors are playing BTC. Retail investors are locked up by altcoins and cannot move. They can only increase income and save money to chase the skyrocketing altcoins and model coins. Hot money and large investors focus on the futures contract marketOperation suggestion:
Operation suggestion:
BTC: In a short period of time, the trend will continue to be consolidated between small groups. The lower limit is 9,800 and 9,500 US dollars, and the upper limit is 10,500 and 11,000 US dollars.Focus on the support/breakthrough of $10,000. Short-term operators should buy low and sell high. It is not recommended to be overly bearish or bullish, It is not recommended to invest a large amount of positions and funds in it, because once there is a big change in the market, it will be buried. On the whole, it is still mainly on the sidelines.
ETH: 160-180-190-200 US dollars range arrangement, the overall volume can be weak, low buying and high selling in the range.
LTC: The range of 60-70-90-100 US dollars is sorted out. The overall market is bearish. It is not recommended to operate in the short term. It will be considered after waiting for the accumulated amount due to halving expectations to be released.
BCH: The range of 230-280-300-360 US dollars is arranged, and the market fluctuates within a narrow range. Wait for the heavy volume signal to appear before considering entering the market.
EOS: 3-3.4-3.8-4-4.2 US dollar range order, the disk volume and price performance is very inactive, short-term operation is not recommended.
XRP and TRX: It is still on the sidelines before, and it is not considered to buy until it breaks through the strong pressure range (XRP is at 0.3 US dollars, and TRX is at 0.02 US dollars).
Platform currency: There are two major points to watch in the market this year, one is the unilateral upward trend of Bitcoin, and the other is the strong rise of platform currency. At this stage, the market is fluctuating at a high level. After nearly half a year of rising, the platform currency has fallen into a stage of stagflation.The IEO trend exists in name only, and it is time to consider the timing of exit in the short and medium term. In the short term, it is recommended to reduce positions on rallies. BNB has fallen below the support of the daily MA180 semi-annual line. If the decline cannot be stopped in a short time, there are signs of further decline in the market. HT and OKB continue to pay attention to the support of the MA60 daily moving average. The K-line trend is above the moving average, and the market is temporarily safe. Once it is effectively broken, it may usher in a downward trend. GT focuses on the announcements involving GT destruction in a short period of time, which will have a greater impact on the disk. Whether it can break through 1 US dollar is all in one fell swoop.
Altcoins: The overall trend is still unclear, and the situation of blooming everywhere is hopeless in a short time. The short-term strength of individual currencies is likely to be a common tactic used by market makers to pump up shipments, and chasing higher prices is not recommended. In addition, if you have any currency you want to analyze, welcome to ask questions in the message area.
