Poor liquidity in the currency market has become a key issue. When will Bitcoin get out of the predicament?
According to Arcane Research analysis, currentlyThe actual market capitalization of Bitcoin has exceeded 90%, much higher than the 68.7% of CoinMarketCap statistics. This is considering the liquidity index. After calculating the volume-weighted market value and adjusting the liquidity, the market value of Bitcoin accounts for more than 90%.
In the traditional financial market, because the market size is large enough, the market order is sound enough, the number of investors is large, liquidity is not a problem, and the investment target itself has a good value support. But in the currency circle, all this is a problem,The currency price has no fundamentals, and there is no effective standard for measuring value, lack of supervision, and small user groups, etc., resulting in poor liquidity for most project currencies. The rise and fall depends on the currency price consensus, and speculation prevails。
We have been saying that digital currency has better liquidity than traditional investment targets, mainly inThe convenience of peer-to-peer transactions, transfer payments, buying and selling circulation, etc. is better, but the liquidity in terms of transactions and intrinsic value support is actually much worse。
After understanding this fact, it is actually beneficial to our investment decisions. A large part of the reason why traditional investment institutions entered the currency circle this year and only participated in bitcoin transactions is here. The market value of BTC is more than 180 billion US dollars, supported by hundreds of exchanges around the world, and the transaction depth is sufficient. Buy or sell With a certain amount of BTC, the support of the currency price is better.
But for most altcoins, the difference in trading depth is a big problem. A slightly larger amount of funds to buy or sell will lead to sharp rises and falls in currency prices.Poor liquidity is the root cause. Ordinary retail investors may not have deep experience in trading, but large funds will not get involved in such illiquid currencies, otherwise they will be easily harvested by dealers.
You can look at the altcoins that have skyrocketed recently on Huobi or OKex. The liquidity and daily trading volume of most currencies are very poor. The dealer only needs a small amount of funds as bait to drive up the price of the currency. High, attracting retail investors to come in to catch up and take orders, and the BTC, ETH, USDT, etc. in the hands of retail investors are harvested by dealers in this way. therefore,For those altcoins with short-term skyrocketing and plummeting, be cautious about chasing higher.
The poor liquidity of the digital currency market is also reflected in the unsound infrastructure services. According to the news just now, due to the failure of Amazon cloud services, data abnormalities occurred in many exchanges. Some exchanges were forced to stop depositing and withdrawing coins, and some investors suffered heavy losses due to data abnormalities. Such incidents happen from time to time. Issues such as the stability of the trading platform, capital security, and transaction security are all major issues that cannot be ignored. It is recommended that everyone trade on a large platform. At least if there is a problem, the exchange will provide a solution.Operation suggestion:
Operation suggestion:
BTC: Today's market panic has eased compared to yesterday, but the overall situation is still relatively panic, and the market continues to fluctuate. hour line level,Small adjustments in the range of 9800-10240 US dollars. Although the K-line closed above 10,000 US dollars in a short period of time, the amount of energy is not large, and it is shrinking, which means that the market is unstable. limited.
In the short term, the broader market showed a trend of stopping the decline and rebounding slightly. If it can run along the upward trend line, it is expected to rebound to around 10,500 US dollars. The strong pressure above is at 11,000 US dollars. We need to beware of short positions at this position. The short-term support is at 10,000, 9,800, 9,500, and 9,000 US dollars. In terms of operation, the spot is still buying low and selling high. Contract traders suggest paying orders at key points and taking profits and stopping losses in time.
ETH: On the whole, it is in the range of 180-200 US dollars, rebounding to 190 US dollars in the short term, and it is expected to touch the pressure range of 200 US dollars in the future. As for the price above 200 US dollars, a larger amount of energy is needed to effectively break through.
LTC: The 70-75 USD range fluctuates, and the volume is weak. In the short term, there is no big market. It is more to follow the trend. The upper range of 80-100 USD is under heavy selling pressure, and it is not recommended to catch up in the short term.
BCH: The hourly level showed a rebound trend, once again stood at 300 US dollars, and under the premise of maintaining stability in the future, it is expected to continue to rise, and the upper pressure range is 330-360 US dollars.
EOS: Short-term rebound trend, it is hoped that it will run to the mid-term consolidation range of 3.8-4 US dollars. The amount of energy at the daily level has been shrinking since December last year, and the disk activity has been affected to a certain extent. It is okay to buy low and sell high in the short and medium term, but it is not recommended to store coins in the long term.
XRP: The currency with a weaker rebound among mainstream currencies has also shrunk in volume. In the short term, it is not considered to intervene until it breaks through 0.3 US dollars.
TRX: Similar to XRP, it fell deeply but rebounded weakly. In the absence of more positive news, it is prudent to buy bottoms.
Platform tokens: From the perspective of medium and long-term trends, the upward trend of mainstream platform tokens (BNB, HT, OKB) has come to an end, and they are currently in a state of consolidation at a high level. At this time, it is not recommended to buy in large quantities. The previous short-term chips can be considered at high levels in batches Take profit. The support and pressure levels of each currency are similar to yesterday, and there is not much change.
Altcoins: Overall, a small number of altcoins have performed well recently, showing signs of capital intervention. When Dabing was sorting out at US$10,000, there were funds involved in the promotion of altcoins, which shows that this part of the funds is relatively optimistic about the market outlook. At the same time, mainstream currencies also show signs of stopping their decline, but BTC has not yet adjusted in place due to the previous increase. Therefore, you can start to consider altcoins, focusing on popular altcoins with high popularity, stable currency prices, and strong community building. In addition, if you have any currency you want to analyze, welcome to ask questions in the message area.
