What stage is Bitcoin currently in? How to operate the follow-up market?
The recent trend of the market has fluctuated violently, and mainstream currencies often rise and fall by more than a dozen points, making it difficult for everyone to determineShort-term market trends and the current stage of the market, And then I don’t know when to buy bottoms and when to stop profits, how should I deal with my own investment decisions? Let's talk about this topic today.
The current digital currency market has the following characteristics:Small overall market capitalization, poor liquidity, lack of market order, and lack of supervision. Therefore, the phenomenon of strong dealers controlling the market occurs from time to time. The dealers can control short-term market trends through the layout of news and funds, such as 1 hour, a few hours, a few days or even one to two weeks.
But even so, market makers cannot control the trend of the broader market over a longer period of time, weeks or months, because there are many market participants, and they are all in a game state. The profit and loss of the market come from the same source, and it is impossible for one party to always occupy the upper hand. , It will only be this moment and that moment, each has its own outcome. Therefore, more often than not, it isThe market has its own rules of operation, and more is to follow the trend. Compared with the individual, the market maker is only different in terms of financial strength, well-informed degree, and trading proficiency, and it is not omnipotent.。
In the current digital currency market, Bitcoin is the only one, accounting for more than 68% of the market value, which is the vane of the market. The trend of Bitcoin represents the overall condition of the market. Therefore, we give a premise,Taking BTC as a reference, December 2017-January 2018 is regarded as the top of the bull market, and November-December 2018 is regarded as the bottom of the bear market.Under this premise, the weekly K-line of Bitcoin is used to analyze,The weekly line can objectively reflect the real market trend of Bitcoin.
As shown in the figure below, according to the historical trend of the Bitcoin weekly K-line, as well as K-line high and low points, pressure levels, support levels and other indicators,The weekly K-line of Bitcoin is divided into three stages: the bear market consolidation period, the rebound consolidation period and the bull market consolidation period.When it comes to specific points, a fluctuation of 100-200 US dollars is within the normal range.
Bear market consolidation period: below $6,000;
Rebound consolidation period: range from $6,000 to $12,000;
Bull market consolidation period: above $12,000.
The bear market consolidation period is the best investment opportunity. No matter how the market changes, the BTC you buy in this range will be profitable at any time during the rebound consolidation period. Therefore, as long as the timing of the purchase is correct, there is no need to go Concerned about the daily rise and fall of currency prices.
rebound consolidation periodIt can be divided into 3 small areas and a key point, including:
Rebound Zone A (initial stage): USD 6000-7400;
Rebound zone B (mid-term adjustment): 7400-9000 US dollars;
Rebound zone C (high shock zone): 9000-12000 US dollars, this stage will oscillate back and forth.
In general,
In general,10,000 US dollars is a key point, which is an important psychological threshold for investors. When the market is above the point, the bulls dominate, and the rebound continues. Below this point, the bears begin to gain the upper hand, and the market falls into a correction period. .
After sorting out in this way, let's analyze the current market. At the end of July, Bitcoin went all the way from 9,000 US dollars to 12,000 US dollars. Generally speaking, it rebounded from the trend of zone C. It failed to stand firm at 12,000 US dollars, which means that the bull market has not yet come, and it is still a period of rebound consolidation. In the next few days, it fell to around 9,500 US dollars, close to the lower edge of the rebound C zone, and then rebounded weakly to around 10,450 US dollars, and began to pull back again. At present,The finishing trend around the key point of 10,000 US dollars will continue until one of the long and short parties takes a dominant position。
For us, the short-term bottom-buying point is at the low point of the rebound C area, around 9,000 US dollars and 9,500 US dollars, and then we can judge according to the stable situation after the market breaks through 10,000 US dollars. If the rebound is weak, when it falls to 10,000 US dollars again. The timing of short-term shipments, if the rebound can continue, then the top 11,000 US dollars and around 12,000 US dollars are the timings for shipments.
For medium and long-term investors, the closer they are to the low point of each range, the more they should buy. Even if they are caught in the short-term, but because it is a medium- and long-term holding strategy, they don’t need to care about the short-term rise and fall of the currency price. The long-term direction remains the same, and it is good to deposit coins with peace of mind.
The reason why many people are tortured by the daily market is that they are unhappy when it rises, and they are also unhappy when it falls.I confuse short-term and medium- and long-term investment strategies, and my operation is as fierce as a tiger, but I forget my original intention of buying coins. Once I confuse short-term, medium-term, and long-term investment operations, it is very easy to cause losses. (For those who don’t understand short-term, mid-term, and long-term strategies, you can refer to my previous article"The way to play short, medium and long-term transactions in the digital currency market"）。
For intraday trading and futures contract traders, the market is inherently unpredictable, and it all depends on guessing. This is no different from flipping a coin to guess the size. If you guess right, you will make a little profit, and if you guess wrong, you will lose part of it. Therefore, it is good to make small troubles, and there is no need to spend a lot of energy, time and money on it, because the accuracy rate is too low, the yield is low, the risk is high, and it is not worth it. We must admit that we are not professional day traders,Operation suggestion:。
Operation suggestion:
BTC: 4-hour line level, after receiving more than a dozen negative lines in a row, finally ushered in a rebound, heavy volume and long lower shadow line, which meansThe decay of bear power and the rebound of bull power. However, judging from the disk, although the bulls resisted, their strength was weak, and the overall market sentiment failed to improve. Therefore, the room for rebound was relatively limited, and then they were suppressed by the bears and fell. At present, 10,000 US dollars is still the key point, and the competition between long and short sides is still continuing. It generally fluctuates in the range of 9,500-10,000-10,550 US dollars to consolidate the trend. The short-term strong support/strong pressure levels are respectively 9,000 US dollars/11,000 US dollars. Direction selection.
The article yesterday afternoon suggested that short-term operators should buy stocks and then take profits in the range of 10,000 to 11,000 US dollars. Those who understand have already completed a wave of short-term in and out operations to earn some profits. But this is a tiger's mouth, and it is risky when the market has not stabilized.Short-term operators need to be adaptable and timely stop profit and stop loss. Not a professional trader, or wait and see.
ETH: There was a slight rebound, but the rebound was too weak. The follow-up will generally be in the range of 160-180-200 US dollars. Only when it regains a firm foothold at 200 US dollars can the market improve.
LTC: Judging from the disk, the selling pressure is still obvious, the big pie retreated slightly, and then fell again. The short-term support range is 65-75 US dollars, and the first pressure level above is 80 US dollars. It is not recommended to operate this currency in the short term.
BCH: The rebound is strong. Yesterday’s $260 will be the bottom in the near future. If $300 can stand firm, once the big pie stops falling and rebounds, BCH will rebound greatly.
EOS: The short-term market acceptance is not bad, and a small amount of positions are opened in the range of 3-3.5 US dollars, and the first pressure above is 4 US dollars.
XRP: Shocked and consolidated in the small area. It was seriously oversold yesterday. USD 0.22 constituted the recent low point. The strength of the market rebound was slightly insufficient. The pressure level of USD 0.28-0.3 was difficult to break through in the short term.
Platform currency: generally follows the trend of the big pie. From the perspective of volume and rise and fall, the short-term selling pressure is not large. You can place orders near the support point to buy a small amount, and medium and long-term currency holders continue to hold. BNB short-term supports the range of 24-26 dollars, HT is in the range of 4.3-4.6 dollars, OKB because of the official statement, there are potential positive factors such as positive factors, the market rebounded greatly, and the range of 2.4-3 dollars can be used to open positions on dips. GT continued to organize the trend in the range of 0.8-1 US dollars, and opened a small amount of positions before the official release of further news.
Altcoins: Although some currencies have rebounded slightly, compared to the previous decline, the rebound is weak. In the short term, when the market fails to effectively stop the decline, it is still prudent to buy bottoms and it is not recommended to chase higher. However, you can pay attention to the counterfeit currencies on the four major platforms (Binance, Huobi, OKEX, Gate), and find the currency that has not followed the decline in the past week, is very resistant to falling, and can increase in volume. Chance. In addition, if you have any currency you want to analyze, welcome to ask questions in the message area.
