Bitcoin rebounds weakly, this weekend may determine the mid-term trend

After Bitcoin pulled up and squeezed the short market again in the early hours of yesterday, it turned and fell. From 14,000 points, it fell all the way to 10,521 points, a drop of nearly 25%, the largest single-day drop this year. When the market was rising, many people shouted that the bull is coming, but in yesterday's falling market, many people were panicked. Some people even asked me, is the currency market going to collapse? The panic is palpable.

Yesterday, there were actually several news. India’s largest encrypted exchange Koinex announced the permanent suspension of trading services, then the Irish exchange Bitsane suspected of running away, and then the upcoming G20 leaders’ meeting will discuss cryptocurrency regulation. Stimulated by a lot of news, the market once fell into a state of turmoil, and the selling pressure continued, and they were all rushing to escape the top.

We know that the main force of the market is generally to attract money at a low level and ship at a high level. When shipping, it will not smash the market and let the market fall into a trend of venting to the bottom. Instead, it will protect the market to a certain extent at certain points. After a certain level, the reverse operation is carried out to make retail investors think that it is an opportunity to buy bottoms and get on the bus in a hurry. The pits on the market mainly come from the selling pressure of retail investors. The market makers use various signals to cause panic in the market and induce retail investors to step on each other. If there is any truth to the financial markets, it is that the majority of people are never right.

From the K-line, the short-term high point is almost 14,000 points. This is completely intentional by the dealer. It went up for a day, but then fell down. The 13,000 US dollars did not even stay for more than 24 hours. The purpose is obvious. It is to explode the positions of both long and short sides. Since the beginning of this year, the market has been controlled by the main funds of institutions and has strong strength, so the short-term point does not represent the actual breakthrough or pressure. Compared with the K-line in 2017, I personally think that in a short period of time, the range of 12,000-13,000 will be a recent stage high. Follow-up depends on the strength of both sides of the market and the adjustment range to judge the stability of this point.

Of course, in the medium and long term, we are still optimistic about the sustainability of BTC. The halving in May next year, the launch of Facebook’s stablecoin Libra, the launch of institutional futures exchanges in the second half of this year, and potential Bitcoin ETFs are all positive. factor. Only in the short term, facing the possible global tightening supervision and compliance process, it may have a drastic impact on the market. For institutions and large funds, when the regulation is approaching and the situation is unclear, it is the best choice to choose to wait and see offshore, and the crazy trend during this period may be the last wave of madness taking advantage of the regulation , to earn current profits.

Operation suggestion:

Operation suggestion:

BTC: short-term callback trend, but the rebound after the callback in the past two days is relatively weak, and the strength of receiving orders is insufficient, reflecting the wait-and-see sentiment of market funds and retail investors. The pressure level is at 12,000 US dollars, that is, near the 1-hour MA60 moving average, and the failure to break through 12,000 US dollars in large volumes is a deception.

Short-term retracement to 10521 to stop falling. This position is just the position of the 4-hour MA60 moving average, which constitutes a strong support in the short term. If the K-line trend falls below the 10000-10520 range in heavy volume, short-term operations need to be withdrawn.

ETH: Followed the downward trend of the big pie, broke the support of 320 US dollars, and adjusted in the range of 280-320 US dollars for a short time. Among the mainstream currencies, the currencies with stronger trends have greater opportunities than other currencies, and you can observe their heavy volume.

LTC: The trend is weak, and the profit-making flight is more obvious. The short-term support is 120 US dollars. According to the current trend, there is still one month before the production cut in August. Even if there is a market in the future, there is a high probability that it will be a shipment market. , Medium and short-term positions lighten up on rallies.

EOS: The trend is very weak, retail investors’ chips are severely trampled, and the short-term support is in the range of 5.5-5.8 US dollars. It is recommended to wait and see.

BCH: Synchronous callback, observe the breakthrough of 450 US dollars, the short-term support is around 400 US dollars.

XRP: The support of USD 0.4 was reconfirmed, but the market rebound was weak, and the performance was the weakest among the mainstream currencies. We will continue to wait and see for a short time.

risk warning:

In addition, if you have any currency you want to analyze, or questions about digital currency investment, you can ask questions in the message area below, and I will try to reply as soon as I see it.

risk warning:

Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.

Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.