Blockchain secondary market report: correction at a high level, approaching short-term change inventory

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2019-06-10 15:51 (UTC+8)

This article is about 7966 words, reading the full article takes about 12 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 23rd week of 2019

AI Summary

Blockchain secondary market report for the 23rd week of 2019

Blockchain secondary market report for the 23rd week of 2019

Highlights of this report:

The trend of the broader market: a correction at a high level, and a short-term change is approaching
Trading volume of the nine major exchanges: the cumulative trading volume of the exchanges increased by 1.86%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 23.80%
Exchange wallet balance: USDT balance decreased by 2.62%
Over-the-counter premium rate: USDT basically maintains a positive premium, and the over-the-counter price index fluctuates and rebounds
Bitcoin Volatility Index: Volatility index rises and retreats, market greed fades
Futures contracts: Short-term futures discounts turn to premiums, and the market expects to switch frequently between long and short
Details of this report:
market summary

Details of this report:

1. The trend of the market: a correction at a high level, and a short-term change is approaching

As of the statistical time of the report (June 08, 2019), the total market value of global blockchain assets this Saturday was US$254.04 billion, a decrease of US$16.56 billion or 6.12% from the US$270.60 billion in the same period last week; the market 24-hour trading volume 60.74 billion U.S. dollars, a drop of 20.35 billion U.S. dollars, or 25.09%, from the 81.08 billion U.S. dollars in the same period last week.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is -7.86%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is -7.95%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is -0.62%.

This week, the market remained volatile and pulled back, the market trading activity has dropped, and the short-term market has entered a recovery period. At the beginning of the week, the market fluctuated above US$270 billion, and then affected by the sell-off of Bitcoin giant whale wallets, the market quickly dived and almost guarded the US$240 billion mark, and then rebounded and recovered to above US$250 billion, closing at US$254.04 billion, down from the same period last week 6.12%; Investors' Fear & Greed Index once fell below 30 after the big market shock this week, breaking the market's persistent greed for several weeks. The market's long-short expectations switch frequently, investor sentiment tends to be cautious, and the market trading activity is relatively high It has fallen back; the current price of Bitcoin is still relatively high, and the short-term market has entered a recovery period in the short-term with the slowdown of the return of off-market funds.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

After the stock market hit a new high in early April and ended the range-bound market that lasted for nearly five months, the stock funds in the market have been activated, and the upper space has reopened. Recently, global risk assets have been affected by a variety of negative factors. Under the market volatility, Bitcoin, as the leading currency, will attract more safe-haven capital inflows. After this week’s price adjustment, the risk has been released to a certain extent, and the underlying support is strong. The current market is a long-short game In the long run, Bitcoin is still at a low valuation and may maintain a volatile upward trend.

2. Trading volume of the nine major exchanges: the cumulative trading volume of the exchanges increased by 1.86%

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchangesSource: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer-term perspective, the daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the first quarter of this year basically fluctuated around 40 billion yuan. In the second quarter, the trading volume gradually declined after breaking through 140 billion yuan in early April. The market trading volume in May was wide. Shocked, hitting new highs. Considering the current trading volume of major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower. According to Bitwise research, the actual transaction volume of Bitcoin spot is about 554 million US dollars, accounting for about 5% of the total statistics.

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 23.80%

The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 245.05% this week, a decrease of 23.80% or 8.85% compared with last week; the highest turnover rate was 43.33%, the lowest was 30.74%, and the extreme value difference was 12.60 percentage points. The overall market trading was active It is down from the previous high.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets this week

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance 534,000, USDT balance decreased by 2.62%

The BTC balance of the exchange this week was 534,326 BTC (on June 5, Beijing time, several wallet addresses of Huobi aggregated a large amount of BTC and transferred to the cold wallet at the end of qQPsP, and this wallet was added to the BTC balance statistics this week); the USDT wallet of the exchange The balance was 1.121 billion USDT, a decrease of 16 million USDT or 1.42% from the same period last week. Tether issued an additional 107 million USDT this week, and the current total USDT circulation (including the ERC-20 version of USDT) is $3.27 billion, an increase of 3.38% from last week.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

5. OTC premium rate: USDT basically maintains a positive premium, and the OTC price index fluctuates and rebounds

Source: CHAINEXT, TokenMania

Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

Source: Tradingview (Kraken), TokenMania

Figure 13 USDT discount premium index

Source: CHAINEXT, TokenMania

[Note] When the USDT off-exchange premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the Bitcoin price volatility index surged and fell, and is currently at a recent low. The opening value of the volatility index this week was 2.10, the highest value was 6.25, the lowest value was 1.88, and the closing value was 2.55. The closing value was 21.43% higher than the same period last week. The position is 62, down 4 points from 66 points in the same period last week, and the high level of market greed has subsided.

7. Futures contracts: Short-term futures discounts turn to premiums, and the market expects to switch frequently between long and short

From the perspective of futures contracts, the prices of forward contracts with different maturities fluctuated and fell this week, and the overall basis spread was in a state of diffusion. In late trading, the discount turned to premium, and the market's long-short expectations frequently switched.From the perspective of the term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.78%, with a premium of 0.11 percentage points; the average premium of next-week contracts is 0.64%, with a premium of 0.37 percentage points; the average premium of quarterly contracts is 1.00%, with a decline 0.63 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.05%. Judging from the total long and short positions of Bitfinex Bitcoin futures, the proportion of long positions has dropped from a relatively high level recently. As of the report statistics time, the long-short ratio of Bitfinex is 52.41%: 47.59%, and the long-short ratio of BITMEX is 49.16%: 50.84%.

As the price of Bitcoin fluctuated widely, the market's expectations for the market outlook switched frequently, and the volatility of forward contracts increased. This week, mainstream exchanges once again saw the short-term insertion of bitcoin futures. With the market fluctuating, investors are expected to pay attention to risks.

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset.For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

The yields of various risky assets diverged this week. Gold, U.S. stocks and European stock markets collectively closed up. Bitcoin fell 7.96% this week.Trump announced this week that the U.S. had reached a deal with Mexico, easing plans to impose tariffs on Mexican imports indefinitely, reducing the risk of further deterioration in global trade tensions. The Federal Reserve released the Beige Book of the May Economic Outlook Survey Report. From April to mid-May, US economic activities expanded at a moderate pace, the economy grew to a certain extent, and prices continued to grow moderately. In terms of U.S. stocks, the Nasdaq index rose 3.88% this week, and the S&P 500 index rose 4.41% this week, the largest weekly increase since December 2018; COMEX gold futures reported 1346.1 US dollars per ounce, a weekly increase of 2.67%. Continuing to hit new highs in three months; in terms of domestic stock markets, the three major stock indexes all fell this week. The cumulative net inflow reached 9.609 billion yuan, setting a new record for the largest weekly net inflow since March, of which the financial sector has the highest capital inflow; the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.24% this week to close at 26965.28 points, ending the previous four consecutive weeks of decline.

Source: TokenMania

Comparing the dynamic rate of return of various assets in the past three years, the performance of Bitcoin is thriving. In the past three years, the dynamic rate of return of Bitcoin has been 1875%, ranking first among all types of assets, and there is a large gap with the rate of return of other assets. Except for digital currency, the performance of other asset returns is divided. The performance of US stocks is relatively good. The S&P 500 index rose by 36.04%, and the Nasdaq composite index rose by 56.04%. In addition, the Hang Seng index rose by 26.43%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by -3.69%. .

Among all kinds of assets, the market value of digital currency fluctuates the most. During the process of bubble expansion and bubble burst, the price of digital currency shows a trend of skyrocketing and plummeting. The bear market actually helps to eliminate inferior projects in the market and short-term The exit of speculators.

Source: TokenMania

9. Market Summary

Market trend: This week, the market remained volatile and pulled back, the market trading activity dropped somewhat, and the short-term market entered a recovery period.At the beginning of the week, the market fluctuated above US$270 billion, and then affected by the sell-off of Bitcoin giant whale wallets, the market quickly dived and almost guarded the US$240 billion mark, and then rebounded and recovered to above US$250 billion, closing at US$254.04 billion, down from the same period last week 6.12%; Investors' Fear & Greed Index once fell below 30 after the big market shock this week, breaking the market's persistent greed for several weeks. The market's long-short expectations switch frequently, investor sentiment tends to be cautious, and the market trading activity is relatively high It has fallen back somewhat. At present, the price of Bitcoin is still at a relatively high level. In the early stage, the superposition of hold-up and profit-making has accumulated short power. With the slowdown of the return of off-market funds, the short-term market has entered a recovery period.

After the stock market hit a new high in early April and ended the range-bound market that lasted for nearly five months, the stock funds in the market have been activated, and the upper space has reopened. Recently, global risk assets have been affected by a variety of negative factors. Under the market volatility, Bitcoin, as the leading currency, will attract more safe-haven capital inflows. After this week’s price adjustment, the risk has been released to a certain extent. There is strong support below. The current market is long and short The game is fierce, and the price is close to changing; in the long run, Bitcoin is still at a low valuation, and may maintain a volatile upward trend.

Trading volume: The trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 1.86%.The cumulative total turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 881.132 billion yuan, an increase of 16.059 billion yuan or 1.86% from last week. The average daily turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 125.876 billion yuan. From the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges are OKEX (32.02%), Huobi (31.32%), and BitMEX (16.85%). The top three exchanges account for the total trading volume of the nine exchanges. 80.19% of the trading volume, the top three accounted for an increase of 3.60% compared with last week. Considering the current trading volume of major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower. According to Bitwise research, the actual transaction volume of Bitcoin spot is about 554 million US dollars, accounting for about 5% of the total statistics. Judging from the global trading volume of LocalBitcoins, the recent global Bitcoin OTC trading volume has fluctuated slightly around 53 million US dollars. In the past week, the global Bitcoin OTC trading volume dropped 9.79% to 52.573 million US dollars; Decreased by 28.3% to 23.32 million yuan; Venezuela’s BTC off-exchange trading volume rose by 7.7% in the last week. Based on the current exchange rate between the Venezuelan bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 874.37VES), the off-site BTC trading volume in the latest week is about 44.756 million yuan .

Turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 23.80%.The overall trading activity of the market this week has dropped from the previous high. The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets has accumulated 245.05% for the week, a decrease of 23.80% or 8.85% from last week; the highest turnover rate is 43.33%, and the lowest is 30.74%. The extreme value difference is 12.60 percentage points. The top three in the cumulative turnover rate this week are ETC (683.52% this week, up 72.92% from last week, up 11.94%), LTC (423.60% this week, down from last week) 41.95%, down 9.01%), EOS (364.39% this week, down 69.87% from last week, down 16.09%),

Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance 534,326, USDT balance decreased by 2.62%. The BTC balance of the exchange this week was 534,326 BTC (on June 5, Beijing time, several wallet addresses of Huobi aggregated a large amount of BTC and transferred to the cold wallet at the end of qQPsP, and this wallet was added to the BTC balance statistics this week); the USDT wallet of the exchange The balance was 1.121 billion USDT, a decrease of 16 million USDT or 1.42% from the same period last week. Tether issued an additional 107 million USDT this week, and the current total USDT circulation (including the ERC-20 version of USDT) is $3.27 billion, an increase of 3.38% from last week.

OTC premium rate: USDT basically maintains a positive premium, and the OTC price index fluctuates and rebounds.This week, the price of the usdt/usd trading pair on the kraken exchange dropped and rebounded, fluctuating in a wide range, and basically maintained a positive premium. The opening premium was 0.07%, the highest premium was 3.50%, the lowest premium was -0.58%, and the closing premium was 0.38%. The USDT off-market discount and premium index fluctuated above 101 points, with an opening value of 101.792 points, a maximum value of 103.302 points, a minimum value of 101.791 points, and a close at 102.608 points.

Bitcoin Price Volatility Index: The Volatility Index rose and fell, and market greed has subsided.This week, the Bitcoin price volatility index surged and fell, and is currently at a recent low. The opening value of the volatility index this week was 2.10, the highest value was 6.25, the lowest value was 1.88, and the closing value was 2.55. The closing value was 21.43% higher than the same period last week. The position is 62, down 4 points from 66 points in the same period last week, and the high level of market greed has subsided.

Futures contracts: This week, the prices of forward contracts with different maturities fluctuated and fell, and the overall basis spread was in a state of diffusion. In late trading, the price changed from a discount to a premium, and the market's long-short expectations frequently switched.From the perspective of the term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.78%, with a premium of 0.11 percentage points; the average premium of next-week contracts is 0.64%, with a premium of 0.37 percentage points; the average premium of quarterly contracts is 1.00%, with a decline 0.63 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.05%. Judging from the total long and short positions of Bitfinex Bitcoin futures, the proportion of long positions has dropped from a relatively high level recently. As of the report statistics time, the long-short ratio of Bitfinex is 52.41%: 47.59%, and the long-short ratio of BITMEX is 49.16%: 50.84%.

Macro perspective: The yields of various risk assets diverged this week, gold, US stocks and European stock markets collectively closed up, and Bitcoin fell 7.96% this weekrisk warning

risk warning

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

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disclaimer

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