Blockchain Secondary Market Report: Shocking Upwards to New Highs, Stabilizing and Recovering Si Lianyang

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2019-04-01 14:31 (UTC+8)

This article is about 7552 words, reading the full article takes about 11 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 13th week of 2019

AI Summary

Blockchain secondary market report for the 13th week of 2019

Blockchain secondary market report for the 13th week of 2019

Highlights of this report:

This week's market trend: shocks and upwards hit new highs, stabilized and rebounded Si Lianyang
Trading volume of the nine major exchanges: total trading volume increased by 9.5%
Weekly cumulative value of digital asset turnover rate: trading activity is at a high level
Exchange wallet balance: Exchange BTC balance increased by 2.45%, USDT balance increased by 6.13%
Over-the-counter premium rate: USDT maintains a positive premium, and there are signs of funds entering the market in the short term
Bitcoin Volatility Index: Volatility volatility rises, market sentiment shifts from fear to greed
Futures contracts: The short-term futures discount rate has decreased, and the bearish sentiment has not dissipated
Details of this report:
market summary

Details of this report:

1. The trend of the market this week: oscillating and rising to new highs, stabilizing and rebounding Si Lianyang

As of the statistical time of the report (March 30, 2019), the total market value of global blockchain assets this Saturday was US$143.6 billion, an increase of US$3.1 billion or 2.18% from US$140.5 billion in the same period last week; the market turnover was 337.0 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 7.90% from the U.S. $31.23 billion in the same period last week.

This week (from March 24, 2019 to March 30, 2019), the Bletchley 10 index closed at 461.62 points, an increase of 2.8% from 449.03 points in the same period last week; the Bletchley 20 index closed at 501.17 points, an increase from 467.96 points in the same period last week 7.1%; Bletchley 40 index closed at 74.47 points, up 7.4% from 69.31 points in the same period last week; Bletchley composite index closed at 198.01 points, up 3.3% from 192.09 points in the same period last week.

This week, the broader market closed up for the fourth consecutive week, the market turnover increased significantly, and the currencies with large, medium and small market capitalizations rebounded in an all-round way.This week, the broader market hit a new high in a month. After a correction at the beginning of the week, it fluctuated and rose. It once touched US$148 billion, an increase of 2.18% from the end of last week. Bitcoin also successfully broke through the US$4,100 mark. From the perspective of quantity and energy, this attack is more aggressive, but this is an area where chips are concentrated in the early stage, and the selling pressure is relatively high. If the market does not break for a long time, remember the risk of a callback; in the long run, the market is close to changing inventory, and may remain volatile Rising market.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

In the past three months, the market is still in an oversold rebound since the sharp drop in November last year, fluctuating in a box range of 110 billion to 140 billion US dollars as a whole, and the market turnover has shrunk sharply compared with the previous period; this week the market continued its upward trend last week The trend has reached a new high at the integer mark of 140 billion U.S. dollars, boosting the confidence of the market, and the market trading sentiment has picked up. At present, the cryptocurrency market still lacks sufficient demand to support the entry of incremental funds and users. The market performance is more the result of the game of stock funds. With the launch of various IEO projects, the market heat shows signs of fading, and more funds will be diverted to mainstream currency.In the long run, mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin are still undervalued. Investors can invest in the direction of least market resistance after setting a stop loss point.

This week, the DragonEx platform wallet was hacked, resulting in the theft of digital assets of users and the platform. According to the analysis of DVP, a decentralized vulnerability platform, the total value of assets stolen from the DragonEx exchange in this incident was not less than US$5 million; Bithumb, a well-known South Korean exchange, was also attacked and resulted in the loss of digital assets. This exchange security incident involved many currencies, and the panic did not spread and did not cause major market fluctuations.

2. Trading volume of the nine major exchanges: total trading volume increased by 9.5%

The cumulative total turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 273.6 billion yuan, an increase of 23.7 billion yuan or 9.5% from last week. The market trading atmosphere has picked up. The total daily turnover of the nine major exchanges is 39.1 billion yuan Yuan fluctuates up and down.

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer time perspective, the total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges has been shrinking recently, and is basically in the low range of 30 billion to 40 billion yuan this year. Considering the current behavior of the major exchanges, Actual volume may be lower. Bitwise, an asset management company, has tested and identified fraudulent order swiping on exchanges, and statistics have found that 95% of bitcoin spot trading volume is forged.

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: transaction activity is at a high level

This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 185%, the same as last week; the highest turnover rate this week was 31%, the lowest was 24%, and the extreme value difference was 7 percentage points. On the whole, the market trading activity has been at a high level in the past month.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets this week

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: Exchange BTC balance increased by 2.45%, USDT balance increased by 6.13%

This week, the BTC balance on the exchange increased by 2.45% compared with last week. The USDT wallet balance on the exchange declined at the beginning of the week and then rebounded. As of Saturday, the USDT balance on the exchange increased by 6.13% compared with the end of last week. The current total USDT circulation (including the ERC-20 version of USDT) is $2.06 billion, an increase of 0.4% from last week.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices compared with on-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of scattered outdoor funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa, it means that the motivation of retail funds entering the market is not high, and even funds are fleeing.

Figure 12 USDT/USD exchange rate

Source: CHAINEXT, TokenMania

Figure 13 USDT discount premium index

Source: CHAINEXT, TokenMania

This week, the price of 1USDT against 1USD on the Poloniex exchange is all in a positive premium state. At the beginning of the week, the premium rate continued the fluctuating downward trend last week. It bottomed out on Monday, and then fluctuated upwards. The highest premium rate was 1.86%, and the lowest premium rate was 0.29%. It closed at 1.46% in late trading. At the same time, the USDT off-site discount and premium index fluctuated slightly this week, reaching a maximum of 101.63 points and closing at 101.56[Note] When the USDT off-exchange premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

[Note] When the USDT off-exchange premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 15 Fear & Greed Index

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

At the beginning of this week, the Bitcoin Price Volatility Index continued from the closing low of last week, showing a volatile upward trend. The opening value was 0.89, the highest value was 1.79, the lowest value was 0.75, and the closing value was 1.39, an increase of 56.2%. At the same time, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 44 to 56 year-on-year. The rise in the broader market boosted market confidence, and the market sentiment shifted from fear to greed.

7. Futures contracts: The short-term futures discount rate has decreased, and the bearish sentiment has not dissipated

From the perspective of futures contracts, in the past two weeks, the prices of forward contracts of different terms of Bitcoin are basically in the area below the spot price, presenting a discount. From the perspective of the term structure, the average discount of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.11%, a discount of 0.35 percentage points; the average discount of next week’s contracts is 0.22%, a discount of 0.1 percentage points; the average discount of quarterly contracts The average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.23%.On the whole, the discount rate of Bitcoin futures has become smaller this week, and the futures and spot prices tend to be consistent, indicating that investors' short-term bearish sentiment has eased, but the market as a whole is still bearish.

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset.For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

The return rate of Bitcoin this week is 2.10%, ranking first among all types of assets; the return rate of various assets has diverged this week. The index rose by 1.20% and 1.13% respectively from last weekend, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.21% from last weekend; the A-share market was relatively sluggish in the first half of this week, falling below 3,000 points at one point, and then closed higher in late trading. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by more than 3%, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3090 points, but it still has not touched last week's closing point. Domestic A-shares have been adjusted since last year, and the market’s valuation safety cushion is relatively high. In the medium and long term, there are certain opportunities for industries with strong anti-cyclical attributes such as A-share consumer goods, military industry, and public utilities.

Following the Federal Reserve's dovish stance last week, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to a 15-month low of 2.34%, but the U.S. dollar remained strong, with the U.S. dollar index maintaining a high above 95; however, concerns over a global economic recession are growing Against the strong background, emerging market currencies that are sensitive to economic growth have been more affected, and almost fell across the board; this week, the Turkish lira suffered a severe setback. The Turkish overnight swap rate once soared to 1,200%, and the Turkish stock index also suffered the largest drop in two years.From the perspective of market performance, safe-haven funds are still keen on traditional safe-haven assets such as the US dollar; for the digital currency market, the increase in risk aversion in the external market may affect the entry of incremental funds.

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

Comparing the dynamic rate of return of various assets in the past three years, the performance of Bitcoin is thriving. In the past three years, the dynamic rate of return of Bitcoin is 926.67%, ranking first among all types of assets, and there is a large gap with the rate of return of other assets. Except for digital currency, other asset yields were divided. U.S. stocks performed relatively well. The S&P 500 Index rose by 37.93%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 59.48%; at the same time, the Hang Seng Index rose by 42.64%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.85%.

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

Among all kinds of assets, the market value of digital currency fluctuates the most. During the process of bubble expansion and bubble burst, the price of digital currency tends to show a trend of skyrocketing and plummeting.Although the digital currency market is still fluctuating at a low level, and the bull market needs a longer period of accumulation and brewing, as the bubbles are squeezed out, digital currencies are still worthy of partial allocation as alternative assets.

9. Market Summary

Market trend: This week, the market closed up for the fourth consecutive week, the market turnover increased significantly, and the currencies with large, medium and small market capitalizations rebounded in an all-round way.This week, the market hit a new high in a month. After a correction at the beginning of the week, it fluctuated and rose. It once touched US$148 billion, an increase of 2.18% from the end of last week. Bitcoin also successfully broke through the US$4,100 mark, which boosted market confidence. Emotions pick up. From the perspective of volume, this attack is more aggressive, but this is an area where chips are densely packed in the early stage, and the selling pressure is relatively high. If the market does not break for a long time, remember the risk of a callback; the current cryptocurrency market still lacks sufficient demand to support the increase The entry of funds and users, the market performance is more the result of the game of stock funds. With the launch of various IEO projects, the market heat shows signs of fading, and more funds will be transferred to mainstream currencies;Trading volume:。

Trading volume:Turnover rate:

Turnover rate:Exchange wallet balance:

Exchange wallet balance:OTC premium rate:

OTC premium rate:This week, the price of 1USDT against 1USD on the Poloniex exchange is all in a positive premium state. At the beginning of the week, the premium rate continued the fluctuating downward trend last week. It bottomed out on Monday, and then fluctuated upwards. The highest premium rate was 1.86%, and the lowest premium rate was 0.29%. It closed at 1.46% in late trading. At the same time, the USDT OTC discount and premium index fluctuated upwards slightly this week, reaching a maximum of 101.63 points and closing at 101.56.In the past month, the premium level of USDT has remained high, and there is the possibility of OTC funds entering the market.

Bitcoin Price Volatility Index:At the beginning of this week, the Bitcoin Price Volatility Index continued from the closing low of last week, showing a volatile upward trend. The opening value was 0.89, the highest value was 1.79, the lowest value was 0.75, and the closing value was 1.39, an increase of 56.2%. At the same time, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 44 to 56 year-on-year. The rise in the broader market boosted market confidence, and the market sentiment shifted from fear to greed.

Futures contract:In the past two weeks, the prices of forward contracts of different terms of Bitcoin are basically in the area below the spot price, presenting a discount state, the basis difference of contracts of different terms has converged, and the short-term bearish sentiment has eased. From the perspective of the term structure, the average discount of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.11%, a discount of 0.35 percentage points; the average discount of next week’s contracts is 0.22%, a discount of 0.1 percentage points; the average discount of quarterly contracts The average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.23%.Macro perspective:

Macro perspective:The return rate of Bitcoin this week is 2.10%, ranking first among all types of assets; the return rate of various assets has diverged this week. The index rose by 1.20% and 1.13% respectively from last weekend, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.21% from last weekend; the A-share market was relatively sluggish in the first half of this week, falling below 3,000 points at one point, and then closed higher in late trading. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by more than 3%, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3090 points, but it still has not touched last week's closing point. Domestic A-shares have been adjusted since last year, and the market’s valuation safety cushion is relatively high. In the medium and long term, there are certain opportunities for industries with strong anti-cyclical attributes such as A-share consumer goods, military industry, and public utilities.

Events of the week:This week, Bitmain’s prospectus on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange expired, and its listing plan suffered a short-term setback. Subsequently, Bitmain issued an internal letter, announcing the adjustment of the organizational structure, with Wang Haichao as the company's CEO, Zhan Ketuan and Wu Jihan will continue to serve as chairman and director respectively, and the company will focus on the main business of digital currency mining machines and AI chips. Bitmain said that it will restart the listing work at an appropriate time in the future.

risk warning

risk warning

Callback risk

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

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disclaimer

TAMC Research Institute does not have any relationship with digital assets or other third parties involved in this report that may affect the objectivity, independence, and impartiality of the report.

The materials and data cited in this report come from compliance channels. The sources of the materials and data are considered reliable by TAMC Research Institute, and necessary verifications have been carried out for their authenticity, accuracy and completeness. However, TAMC Research Institute is not responsible for makes no warranty as to its truth, accuracy or completeness.

The content of the report is for reference only, and the facts and opinions in the report do not constitute any investment advice on relevant digital assets. TAMC Research Institute shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of the contents of this report, unless expressly stipulated by laws and regulations. Readers should not make investment decisions solely based on this report, nor should they lose the ability to make independent judgments based on this report.

The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments.

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