Bear market rally or bull market harbinger?
The market continues to be strong, and the long-term sentiment is getting higher and higher, and the cloud of correction will not wait for a long time. Will the bull market come earlier than expected?
The rise continued to exceed expectations, and the rebound actually popped up a new bull market?
Bitcoin has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks since the Chinese New Year, setting a record for the longest rebound in the past two years. It has continued to rebound for nearly 15 weeks since the previous low, showing a volatile pattern of rising bottoms. Hotspots emerged frequently during this monthly market rebound. During this period, ETH upgrades, mining coins, platform coins, and rebounds of oversold coins at the bottom emerged one after another, and the profit-making effect continued to ferment.
The biggest feature of this rebound is that the mainstream currency led by Bitcoin has maintained a relatively long-term downward volatility. From the perspective of the BVOL24H volatility index, since bottoming out in December last year, Bitcoin has generally maintained a long-term downward trend in volatility. It reflects a very obvious consistent long-term expectation; judging from the weekly volatility since 2016, the absolute value, characteristics and duration period of the current volatility are almost similar to the level in March 2017, such a long-term low volatility I am afraid that it will bring a very huge change to the market within 2-3 weeks.
Data source: Bitmex
Data source: MVIS Index
Data source: MVIS Index
It can also be clearly perceived from the recent market sentiment that the majority of investors’ risk appetite has risen rapidly in the past month, and their enthusiasm for investing in small and medium-sized market capitalization currencies is very high. There was an astonishing mutation, and the market revealed a rushing mood.
Data source: BlockVC strategy research
Data source: BlockVC strategy research
Data source: TradingView
Data source: TradingView
It can be seen from the above figure that the position of the Bitfinex leveraged long-short contract is generally an accurate reverse indicator. When the long-short ratio reaches a relatively high point, the currency price will often undergo a substantial adjustment. The interesting situation is that since February 2019, the long-short ratio of BTC has been close to the previous high several times, but the currency price resumed its upward trend after only a slight correction, and the trend is very strong; the long-short ratio of ETH is more intriguing, and ETH has more leverage The empty ratio has broken new highs one after another. Although the ETH trend is weak, the currency price still refuses to adjust and maintains a volatile situation.
This kind of situation also has to make people doubt that the short-term failure of sentiment and capital indicators at the same time is whether the frequent market hotspots have led to the influx of off-market funds, and whether the secondary market structure and thinking are transitioning from stock games to incremental funds?
Due to the poor liquidity of small and medium-sized market capitalization currencies, they cannot accommodate large capital inflows and outflows. It is biased to examine their prices, yields, and volatility alone. Although the first quarter has always been a good time for RISK-ON, such a strong bullish sentiment With such a steady increase in leveraged contract positions, people can't help but think, whether the market risk appetite and capital flow have risen at the same time, is the bull market eager to come?
Bears are getting smarter and bulls are getting richer
Data source: BlockVC strategy research
Data source: BlockVC strategy research
Data source: BlockVC strategy research
Data source: BlockVC strategy research
Data source: BlockVC strategy research
Data source: BlockVC strategy research
Through the comprehensive analysis of the Teide Index and the Tunning Index, BlockVC Strategy Research believes that the digital currency market represented by BTC has entered a new cycle of bottom shocks and trend brewing. During this period of time, whether the bear market is gone or the bull market is coming has become the core debate in the market. Investors' trading thinking and methods must also change in line with changes in trends. Those who have already entered the market and have a high risk appetite If you want to try to participate in the market with short-term funds, you can consider going to places with a lot of people, where funds are most concentrated and most popular.
The market is changing, boldly dance with the leader
In the secondary market, as the market gradually recovers from the bear market, the trading volume of encrypted assets can gradually increase, and the wealth effect becomes more and more obvious. The microscopic transaction data also supports the research and judgment of the BlockVC strategy research team. It is increasingly showing that funds are deposited to the top, and the situation of "the strong will always be strong, and the winner will take all".
Data source: BlockVC strategy research
Data source: BlockVC strategy research
Since late February 2019, the average turnover rate in the market has increased by 22%, reaching a level of 170%. The average rate of return of the top 200 currencies by market capitalization has skyrocketed by 200%, reaching 30%. Point of view, many Altcoins (altcoins) have completed the work of "filling pits" on the platform that fell in November last year, and the price of the currency has returned to the level before November last year or even higher; during this stage, many currencies performed eye-catching : Among mainstream currencies, LTC and BNB continue to lead, achieving 17% and 54% increases respectively. BNB entered the top 10 market capitalization in one fell swoop, among which the wealth effect of Launchpad played a major role in boosting; RVN, ENJ, and HT have attracted a lot of attention, and the doubling market has appeared many times; currencies such as MDA and NULS, which performed moderately in the last cycle, also shine.
Data source: BlockVC strategy research
Data source: BlockVC strategy research
Through further analysis of liquidity data, BlockVC strategy research believes that the internal logic behind price rises and falls is undergoing structural changes: the current market presents a clearer rise and fall characteristics and capital flow, that is, the logic of "the strong will always be strong" has Replacing the previous logic of "compensatory growth" has become the main theme of the market at this stage.
Data source: BlockVC strategy research
Data source: BlockVC strategy research
In the cycle from late February to the present, LTC, EOS, MDA, NULS, HT, ENJ, RVN, BTT, BNB and other currencies have achieved a high turnover rate and the absolute value of the transaction volume is sufficient for investors Free access to the secondary market. At the same time, CELR and TOP, the new darlings of the 1E0 model, both rapidly increased in volume after opening for trading, and the trading volume both exceeded 100 million US dollars in a short period of time, with sufficient turnover, bringing sufficient dividends to investors on the trading platform. In the foreseeable future, the 1E0 currency of the leading platform will continue to enjoy the most superior liquidity and market depth in the entire market.
BlockVC’s strategic research believes that in the current market, funds are gathering at the head, and multiple currencies such as RVN, ENJ, THETA, EVX, IOST, NULS have experienced large-scale increases, and prices have not experienced rapid rises and falls The negative situation proves that the current market sentiment is strong enough to support some leading varieties out of the independent market in the medium and long term. While the 1E0 model has swept the industry, it has created sufficient liquidity and depth for a number of projects that have not yet entered the secondary market. The success of BTT, CELR, TOP and other varieties has brought good endorsement to the 1E0 model. At the same time, mainstream currencies supported by fundamentals, such as LTC, which is about to cut production, and ADA, which is about to hold a meeting, will continue to lead the development of the market in the future.
BlockVC’s strategic research believes that all kinds of long-short signals are currently in a state of failure and conflict with each other, and the long-short structure in the market is becoming more and more complicated, but it just brings about whether the market is gradually coming out of the haze of the bear market, whether the signs of a bull-bear transition have loomed, etc. problem thinking.
Investors with higher risk appetite who have already participated in market transactions, if they want to try to participate in the current market conditions, they should take liquidity as the core factor of investment and trading strategies, and choose Huobi and Binance exchanges with the most outstanding market liquidity , choose targets with relatively prominent liquidity and popularity on the platform, such as TOP and CELR, etc., but it is necessary to maintain a sense of risk vigilance while pursuing returns.
Introduction to BlockVC
BlockVC is the world's leading blockchain venture capital institution, focusing on investing in start-ups, encrypted assets and venture capital in the blockchain field. It is famous for its professionalism and internationalization in the industry. Since 2017, it has invested in more than 160 projects around the world. It has been disclosed The number of investments is about 60, currently managing 1 VC fund, 2 ecological funds, and 1 M&A fund.
BlockVC has systematically established the investment philosophy of "linkage between the primary and secondary markets" and created an exclusive investment matrix. The investment direction covers the basic public chain, application protocol and financial services in the blockchain ecosystem, providing blockchain projects with full life cycle services from investment incubation to asset management, and the projects invested have global influence force.
disclaimer
disclaimer
The push content of this WeChat is only for reference of BlockVC customers. Before subscribing to this WeChat, any other readers should evaluate the appropriateness of receiving relevant push content. If you use this WeChat to push content, you must seek the interpretation and guidance of a professional investment consultant , BlockVC will not regard relevant personnel as customers because of the behavior of subscribing to this WeChat account or receiving and reading the push content of this WeChat account.
The complete investment viewpoint should be subject to the complete report issued by BlockVC. The sources of information and opinions contained in the full report are believed to be reliable by BlockVC, but BlockVC does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, and the content of the report is for reference only.
In any case, the information pushed or opinions expressed on this WeChat account do not constitute investment advice to anyone. Unless otherwise specified by laws and regulations, BlockVC shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of the contents of this WeChat account under any circumstances. Readers should not use the content pushed by this WeChat account to replace their independent judgment or make decisions based solely on the content pushed by this WeChat account.
The push content of this WeChat account only reflects the judgment of BlockVC strategy researchers on the day when the full report is issued, and may be changed at any time without notice.
The copyright of this WeChat account and its pushed content belongs to BlockVC, and BlockVC reserves all legal rights to this WeChat account and its pushed content. Without the prior written permission of BlockVC, no institution or individual may reprint, reproduce, publish, reprint or quote in any form, otherwise all adverse consequences and legal responsibilities arising therefrom shall be borne by the person who reprints, reproduces, publishes, reprints and quotes without permission.
