QCP: Bitcoin is stable in the short term but pressure is accumulating; 80-82k is a key support level.

According to a recent market memo from QCP Asia, Bitcoin is currently holding steady in the high $80,000 range, driven by improved risk sentiment and an upward revision of the probability of a December rate cut to 85%. However, macroeconomic signals remain mixed: inflation remains high, employment data is weak, and this week will still see key data releases such as initial jobless claims and ADP.

QCP noted that AI-related credit metrics weakened, CDS expanded, and market concerns intensified regarding Nvidia's rising accounts receivable and inventory levels. Cryptocurrency flows were also bearish, with ETFs experiencing continued net outflows, and most products trading below 1 mNAV. Strategy has once again attracted market attention due to its Bitcoin holdings nearing cost price and its stock being placed on MSCI's watch list.

Looking ahead to the end of the year, BTC positions exhibit a structure of "heavy hedging on the downside and limited buying on the upside": significant pressure is seen around $90,000, while the $80,000-$82,000 range is a key support level. QCP inquired whether the current temporary stability can be sustained, or whether a new market trend is brewing.