BIT 投研：MicroStrategy 從最大買家變賣家，75 億美元潛在賣壓會如何影響比特幣？

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) was once one of the most aggressive Bitcoin buyers in the market, long known for its "never sell" stance. However, the company has recently begun selling Bitcoin to replenish dollar reserves, pay preferred stock dividends and interest, and repurchase Digital Credit Securities. This means that one of the key structural buyers that previously underpinned the Bitcoin market is now shifting toward becoming a source of selling pressure.

Meanwhile, the macro environment is improving. At the late-July FOMC meeting, only 3 of the 12 voting members supported a rate hike, and cooling labor market conditions alongside easing inflation have further reduced the likelihood of a September hike. But unlike equities, which benefit from pension allocations and corporate buybacks, or gold, which benefits from central bank reserve diversification, Bitcoin lacks similar stable structural buying. Strategy's continued selling has therefore become a key variable affecting short-term market risk appetite.

MicroStrategy's Shift from Largest Buyer to Seller: Roughly $4.5 Billion in Bitcoin May Still Be Up for Sale

Strategy has accumulated approximately $62 billion worth of Bitcoin, and even accelerated its buying during price declines. Recently, however, this trend has reversed. According to analyst estimates, the company may be planning to reduce its STRC (Digital Credit Securities) outstanding balance from roughly $10 billion to $5 billion, with Bitcoin sales potentially serving as the primary funding source. If so, the company may still need to sell approximately $4.5 billion in Bitcoin, expected to be executed in tranches over the next two to four months.

While this selling scale is not enormous relative to the overall Bitcoin market, its impact is more pronounced at the level of risk appetite. Strategy, which previously played the role of a structural buyer over the long term, is now gradually becoming a marginal seller. If the company maintains a selling pace of roughly $100 million per week, the selling pressure could persist for a longer period; unless stronger macro catalysts emerge to drive a large-scale return of Bitcoin ETF buying, short-term rebounds may remain constrained.

A deeper shift lies in the capital model of Bitcoin treasury companies. The so-called "BTC Yield" of the past was largely driven by the NAV premium of the stock relative to Bitcoin holdings. As this premium narrows or even turns into a discount, the model of relying on capital market financing to continuously accumulate Bitcoin is also beginning to face challenges.

Expanding NAV Discount: Potential Selling Pressure from Bitcoin Treasury Companies Could Reach Up to $7.5 Billion

Among the 109 Bitcoin treasury companies tracked, 28 currently have market capitalizations below the value of their Bitcoin holdings, meaning their mNAV is below 1.0x. These companies collectively hold approximately $3 billion in Bitcoin. For companies whose stock prices have long traded below asset value, selling a portion of Bitcoin and repurchasing shares could serve as a way to narrow the NAV discount and unlock shareholder value.

This suggests that potential selling pressure is not limited to Strategy alone. Over the coming months, the combined potential selling scale from Bitcoin treasury companies could reach up to roughly $7.5 billion. Meanwhile, if these companies wish to re-attract capital, they will also need to transition from a financing model dependent on NAV premiums to strategies that generate actual returns—such as selling covered call options on Bitcoin, lending out BTC, or engaging in basis trading.

However, the NAV discount also has another side. Currently, the implied Bitcoin price embedded in some treasury company stocks is only around $20,000, while the spot Bitcoin price is approximately $63,000—equivalent to roughly 0.3x. By comparison, in November 2024, the implied Bitcoin price in MicroStrategy's stock briefly reached 2–3 times the actual spot price. If management proactively takes measures to narrow the discount, some companies could see significant valuation recovery potential.

Overall, Strategy's shift from a long-term structural buyer to a seller is reshaping the capital flow structure of the Bitcoin market. Over the next two to four months, the company may still sell approximately $4.5 billion in Bitcoin, while the potential selling scale across the entire Bitcoin treasury company sector could reach up to around $7.5 billion, which will continue to pressure market risk appetite in the near term.

However, this change does not alter the assessment that Bitcoin is forming a bottom, and the cycle low is still expected to be officially confirmed by the end of this month or next. Going forward, the more critical points to watch are when Strategy's selling is fully absorbed, whether ETF buying can resume, and whether Bitcoin treasury companies under NAV discounts can unlock value again through proactive capital strategy adjustments.

Some of the above views are from BIT on Target. Contact us for the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: Markets involve risk; invest with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve extreme risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of individual circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.