Bitcoin bear market enters final stage, chips moving positively but upward momentum remains weak

特邀专栏作者

2026-07-29 04:00

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Retail selling pressure is nearly exhausted, large holders continue to accumulate. Bitcoin has been falling for 9 months, two steps remain before a trend reversal.

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Core Point: Bitcoin on-chain data shows the bear market is nearing its end. Key signals include the crossover of short-term and long-term holder cost bases, long-term holder supply reaching an all-time high of 84%, and the percentage of supply in loss dropping below 50%. However, the market hasn't fully bottomed out yet, and a reversal still requires multiple conditions to be met.
Key Elements:
1. The cost basis of short-term and long-term holders is converging (short-term cost dropping from $112,500 to $69,000), indicating market dominance shifting from short-term retail investors to long-term investors—a hallmark of the bear market's final phase.
2. The proportion of supply held by long-term holders has reached 84%, an all-time high, making circulating supply scarce (short-term liquidity at only 16%). Recent monthly accumulation amounts to 1.29 million BTC, showing mature investors continuously adding to their positions.
3. The percentage of supply in loss peaked at 50% and has since fallen back to 46%. Historical data suggests a subsequent bottoming-out cycle of approximately 13-101 days; the market has entered the final countdown to the bottom.
4. The Realized Market Value Variance Z-score is -2.35, an extreme low in the bottom 6% historically, reflecting minimal overall market profitability. Historically, such ranges often precede periods of significant returns.
5. Short-term holding momentum indicators are bearish but with higher lows. The bullish sentiment index is only 20 (far below 60). Price has not broken through two key resistance levels: the realized market average price and the average short-term cost basis.
6. Continued selling by miners could lead the price to drop to $47,000. If the price fails to break through short-term higher cost levels, it may fall back to around $58,000.

原文作者：Ashrith Rao

原文編譯：Saoirse，Foresight News

經歷連續九個月的價格下行，比特幣鏈上數據證明市場來到熊市尾聲。

本輪行情有三大標誌性特徵：長短持有者持倉成本出現關鍵交叉、流通供給迎來前所未有的收緊、投機資金漫長且持續性地割肉離場。本次分析完全依託數據展開，研究市場從深度虧損陣痛過渡到長線資金囤幣佈局的全過程，並非主觀情緒化判斷。

交叉訊號：市場話語權完成交接

鏈上數據面板最直觀的訊號是：長線持有者與短線持有者的持倉成本趨於重合，這是極具參考價值的風向標。

2026 年 7 月中旬，比特幣出現經典熊市見底指標：短線持有者的已實現持倉價格相較於長線持有者持續走低。這背後代表著短線散戶集體止損離場，絕非普通的圖表波動。

自本輪行情高點以來，短線持有者平均持倉成本從約 112500 美元大幅跌至 69000 美元。長線持有者多為掌握更多市場資訊的成熟投資者，持倉成本始終保持堅挺；而近期進場資金大規模拋售，直接造成短線持倉成本大幅跳水。

歷史規律顯示，這種成本線交叉往往意味著熊市最後階段開啟。風險承受能力弱的散戶被市場充分出清，手握籌碼的資深投資者開始主導後續市場走向。

若交叉狀態能夠長期維持，則代表築底進程正式開啟，其中連續三日站穩交叉區間是重要確認標準。

供給收縮：84% 籌碼壁壘形成

長短持倉成本的交叉，本質是市場籌碼話語權更迭，底層供給結構可以印證這一變化。

Alphractal 統計數據顯示，比特幣長線持有者持倉佔比創下歷史新高，達到 84%。這是 2016 年以來，短線交易者可動用的流通流動性第一次僅有總量的 16%。長線持倉總量是短線流通籌碼的 5.2 倍，足以證明成熟投資者在市場走弱階段堅持加倉、持倉信心充足。

流通籌碼稀缺造就特殊市場格局：當下市場流動性處於歷史低位，只要市場需求迎來大幅增長，比特幣價格大概率會出現劇烈波動。加密量化研究機構 CryptoQuant 的數據佐證了這一判斷：今年 5 月，長線持有者淨持倉增量創下六年峰值，累計增持 129 萬枚比特幣。

籌碼結構還有另一明顯特徵：除持倉時長 6 至 12 個月的籌碼正在大批量轉為長線持倉外，其餘所有持倉週期的流通籌碼都在持續減少，投機資金不斷撤離。

底部訊號確認：恐慌拋售進入倒計時

結合虧損籌碼規模與已實現市值方差（RCV）模型，可以佐證市場處於熊市末期。

K33 研究機構給出關鍵數據：6 月 5 日，處於虧損狀態的比特幣流通籌碼佔比突破 50% 臨界線；目前該比例回落至 46%。回顧歷史，當虧損籌碼佔比衝高回落至 50% 以下，後續築底週期普遍在 13 天至 101 天，當下已經進入底部倒計時。本輪磨底週期時長位列歷史第二，種種跡象說明行情最壞的階段大概率已經結束，而非下跌剛剛開始。

CryptoQuant 測算的已實現市值方差 Z 值為 -2.35，該數值處於歷史後 6% 的極端低位。這意味著當下市場普遍盈利微薄。複盤歷史，這類區間往往是後續大額收益的前置階段。

目前各類指標逐步共振，價格已經充分消化估值壓力與宏觀環境利空，但市場依舊沒有出現明確的入場買點。