Polymarket上最難預測的是……什麼時候空投POLY

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

Yesterday, the "World Cup Champion" prediction event concluded with a trading volume of $4.32 billion, surpassing the $3.686 billion of the "2024 US Presidential Election Winner" to become the highest single-event trading volume in Polymarket's history.

Moreover, during the six weeks of the World Cup, Polymarket's football sector recorded a cumulative notional trading volume of $8.5 billion, four times the total trading volume of all other sports combined during the same period.

The 2024 US election brought Polymarket into the mainstream, while the 2026 World Cup propelled it into the higher-frequency sports market. With $8.5 billion in six weeks and $4.32 billion in a single market, Polymarket has not only set records but also found a traffic engine that runs faster than elections.

Leveraging World Cup Traffic, Polymarket "Quietly" Raises Fees in the Sports Sector

On July 10, during the final phase of the World Cup, Polymarket increased transaction fees for the sports market.

This adjustment was not announced separately to regular users but appeared in the platform's developer Changelog. The Taker fee coefficient for the sports sector was raised from 0.03 to 0.05, and the Maker rebate rate was reduced from 25% to 15%.

The fee increase from 0.03 to 0.05 may seem minor, but the actual transaction cost has risen by nearly 70%. For example, when buying 100 shares of a sports event, the fee peaks when the share price is $0.50. Before the adjustment, users paid a maximum of $0.75; after the adjustment, the maximum fee rose to $1.25. As the share price approaches $0.01 or $0.99, the fee decreases symmetrically towards both ends. The specific distribution is shown in the table below.

With this change, the sports sector is no longer under Polymarket's lowest fee tier. Previously, it belonged to lower-cost trading categories like politics, finance, and technology. After the adjustment, the maximum fee per 100 shares rose to $1.25, placing it in the same tier as the economy, culture, and weather sectors, second only to the cryptocurrency market's $1.75.

Looking back over the past six months, Polymarket's fee range has been quietly expanding.

In January 2026, Polymarket first introduced Taker fees in the 15-minute cryptocurrency market. In February, the fee scope expanded to include some college basketball and Serie A markets. In March, fees were applied to all newly listed cryptocurrency markets. After introducing Fee Structure V2 at the end of March, categories like politics, finance, economy, culture, weather, and technology were gradually included.

For the platform, once user habits are established, raising fees has not led to widespread user loss but allows the same trading volume to generate more revenue.

POLY Airdrop Controversy Reignites: How Much Longer Must Users Wait?

Recently, the community discovered that Polymarket's official affiliated account, Polymarket Traders, deleted a tweet posted on May 13. The original tweet was interpreted by the community as a hint regarding a POLY airdrop. After the deletion, many users began re-examining the account's historical content, reigniting discussions around whether "the airdrop plan has changed."

The market's sensitivity stems from the fact that Polymarket issuing a token is no longer baseless speculation. In October 2025, Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer, Matthew Modabber, explicitly stated in a podcast: "There will be a token, and there will also be an airdrop." He also mentioned that Polymarket's primary goal at the time was to return to the US market, and the token plan would proceed after the US business was established, praising Hyperliquid's token issuance method.

This statement once led the community to believe that POLY was only a matter of time. Subsequently, trading volume, market-making scale, and active days were also considered by many users as potential airdrop weighting factors. Even though the platform never announced snapshot times or distribution rules, users continued to trade, waiting for the token issuance plan to materialize.

The issue is that, with the US business having progressed and the high-profile World Cup now concluded, Polymarket has yet to announce a timeline for POLY. Attentive users noticed that in the help center section of Polymarket's official website, a newly added statement indicates that the platform "has not yet announced any plans for an airdrop or token generation event," advising users to be wary of scams conducted under the guise of an airdrop. This doesn't necessarily mean POLY is canceled, but for users who have been waiting for a long time, the question is no longer whether Polymarket will issue a token, but rather how much longer this "future" will be delayed.

Currently, the community has two main theories regarding the delay. One view is that Polymarket is waiting for a more suitable compliance window. The platform is still expanding its US business, and issuing a token along with an airdrop could introduce additional regulatory issues. Deleting overly direct hints from affiliated accounts before finalizing official plans might simply be a move to tighten public messaging.

Another view suggests that Polymarket no longer feels an urgent need to issue a token and may potentially become the next OpenSea. In the past, the platform relied on airdrop expectations to attract users, increase trading volume, and supplement liquidity. Now, Polymarket boasts a large user base and real revenue, with fees continually increasing. As the platform's dependence on a token decreases, the priority for POLY naturally may be pushed further back.

In the past, the community discussed how POLY would be airdropped and whether trading volume would count as a weighting factor. Now, the discussion has shifted to how much longer they will have to wait and what the next hopeful timeline might be. Polymarket, which lists countless prediction events, has yet to deliver a settlement date for its own airdrop.