BitMart研究院每週熱點：多重利空集中兌現，加密市場創FTX後最大單週跌幅，宏觀與鏈上全景復盤

1. Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets

1.1. Strong Nonfarm Payrolls Cause Market Turmoil: Rate Cut Expectations Reversed, Rate Hike Pricing Heats Up

The biggest macroeconomic variable this week was the U.S. May nonfarm payrolls report. 172,000 jobs were added, far exceeding the market expectation of 85,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, indicating continued resilience in the labor market. This strong employment data significantly cooled expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut within the year, leading the market to begin repricing the risk of rate hikes. Goldman Sachs also pushed back its rate cut forecast to 2027. Following the data release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.55%, hitting a two-week high; the Nasdaq fell sharply by 4.2% in a single day, with significant pressure on tech stocks and the semiconductor sector. Broadcom dropped over 12% in a single day due to AI revenue guidance falling short of expectations, dragging down Micron, Arm, AMD, and others, indicating that valuation pressures within the crowded AI trade are being released.

1.2. Geopolitics and Energy: A Glimmer of Hope in Iran Talks, but Middle East Risks Remain

Trump stated that U.S.-Iran negotiations have entered the "final critical stage," with discussions on a ceasefire related to the Strait of Hormuz continuing to advance. This led to a temporary easing of market concerns regarding extreme risks in the Middle East, with both WTI and Brent crude oil falling over 3% in a single day. However, geopolitical tensions have not truly subsided. Israel continues to expand its ground operations in Lebanon, and joint U.S.-Israel military actions are still reinforcing regional uncertainty. Combined with the Eurozone's May inflation rising to 3.2%, energy prices further strengthened the market's "reflation" concerns, also limiting the Fed's future scope for rate cuts. Meanwhile, copper prices continued to rise as tariff reviews approached, with both Goldman Sachs and Citigroup subsequently raising their year-end price targets.

1.3. Fed's Key Window: Warsh's First FOMC Meeting Looms, This Week's CPI Becomes Global Focus

New Fed Chair Warsh will chair his first FOMC meeting on June 17. Although maintaining the current interest rate in June remains the market consensus, the pricing logic has shifted from "when will they cut rates" to "will they hike rates again." The U.S. May CPI report, released this Wednesday, will be the most critical data point before the June FOMC meeting. If inflation exceeds expectations again, Treasury yields could continue to rise, increasing valuation pressure on risk assets. Conversely, a significant drop in CPI could alleviate market concerns about "reflation."

Meanwhile, SpaceX plans to go public on June 12 with an estimated valuation of around $1.77 trillion. Alongside large IPOs like Anthropic, the liquidity absorption effect could continue to suppress the resilience of risk assets. Additionally, the Japanese yen is approaching the 160 level. If the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raises rates on June 16, the unwinding of carry trades could create additional shocks for tech stocks and crypto assets.

2. Cryptocurrency Market

2.1. Market Overview: BTC Plunges ~17% in a Single Week, the Largest Weekly Drop Since the FTX Collapse

The crypto market experienced its most severe single-week decline since the FTX collapse in November 2022. BTC dropped from around $72,700 at the start of June to a low of $61,100 on June 5, a weekly decline of approximately 17%-20%. ETH fell roughly 22% in tandem, currently trading around $1,682, a drop of about 66% from its all-time high.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased from $2.57 trillion to $2.25 trillion, evaporating approximately $390 billion in one week. Leverage liquidations totaled around $70 billion for the week, with longs accounting for about $57 billion. On June 5 alone, liquidations reached $1.146 billion, affecting over 240,000 traders. The Fear and Greed Index fell to 9, entering the "Extreme Fear" zone. The primary pressures driving this decline stem from the resonance of falling risk appetite in the U.S. stock market, surging U.S. Treasury yields, continued outflows from ETFs, and concentrated liquidations of leveraged long positions.

2.2. Sustained Net Outflows from ETFs, Systematic Reduction of Institutional Positions

U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $325 million this week, bringing the cumulative total net inflow to approximately $53.94 billion. Ethereum spot ETFs experienced net outflows of $5.97 million this week, with cumulative total net inflows around $11.2 billion. The combination of ETF outflows, professional investors reducing their BTC exposure, and continued selling by some institutions is exerting systemic de-risking pressure on the crypto market.

Strategy has paused its BTC purchasing ATM issuance program, prioritizing the buyback of approximately $1.5 billion in convertible bonds. As a significant marginal buyer of BTC over the past two years, its slowing pace implies weakened short-term market support. Overall, the booming investment in AI infrastructure continues to drain liquidity from the crypto market. The liquidity absorption effect from mega-IPOs like SpaceX and Anthropic also continues to be a core obstacle to an independent crypto rally.

2.3. On-Chain Data: Simultaneous Whales Buying the Dip and Significant Liquidation Risks

On-chain signals are clearly diverging this week. On one hand, some large players have started buying the dip. An Ethereum OG repurchased 35,723 ETH at an average price of $1,563. One whale accumulated a total of 93,330 ETH using approximately $152 million USDT. Joseph Lubin added another 30,000 ETH to his Maker vault, bringing his total staked position to 110,000 ETH to mitigate liquidation risk.

On the other hand, liquidation risks have not been eliminated. Three major whales holding a combined 345,000 ETH (worth approximately $537 million) still face liquidation threats, with liquidation price ranges around $1,241-$1,472. The total stablecoin market cap fell to $310 billion, a weekly contraction of about 1.89%, indicating generally weak on-chain purchasing power. BTC is currently testing support near the 200-week moving average, around the $61,821 level. This marks the first touch of this key level since 2023. Whether it can hold support near $60,000 will be a core variable in determining short-term market direction.

2.4. Industry Narrative: Accelerated Compliance of Derivatives, Speeding Up Institutional Infrastructure Deployment

The industry narrative this week continued to converge around "institutional infrastructure" and "compliant derivatives." CME launched Nasdaq Crypto Index Futures on June 8, covering assets like BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, and XLM. Concurrently, under the CFTC regulatory framework, Coinbase launched perpetual stock index futures for four categories: AI 10, China 10, Defense 10, and Tech 100.

Ondo Finance's Ondo Perps went live on June 9, attempting to extend perpetual contracts from crypto assets to equities and other asset classes. Meanwhile, quantitative firms like DRW, Wintermute, and IMC are rapidly forming prediction market teams to deploy cross-platform arbitrage strategies around Polymarket and Kalshi. Overall, this sharp decline has not diminished the institutional trend; instead, it has strengthened the main narrative of "compliant derivatives + on-chain financial infrastructure." The crypto market is gradually transitioning from being driven by retail sentiment to being driven by institutional capital efficiency and compliant products.

This article is a market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Investment carries high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk controls before trading.