Is Bitcoin’s selling pressure easing? Realized losses have fallen 56% from the peak, but demand recovery remains insufficient

Odaily Odaily News CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that in the current bear market phase of Bitcoin, holders have experienced the largest scale of realized losses in history. In February 2026, the 30-day moving average (30DMA) of realized losses peaked at $1.37 billion, 19% higher than the cycle high of $1.15 billion in 2022. Data shows that since the February peak, Bitcoin realized losses have dropped by 56.5% to approximately $597 million. At the same time, the scale of realized profits has only slowly recovered to $257 million. Axel Adler pointed out that the sell-off pressure driven by losses has clearly weakened, but the market has not yet seen a sustained recovery in demand, with the decline in losses still outpacing the recovery in profits.

From a historical cycle comparison, realized losses reached $1.37 billion on February 20, 2026, a new all-time high for this indicator. The highest realized loss in the 2022 cycle was $1.15 billion, occurring on June 30, 2022. On the profit side, as of July 23, the 30DMA of Bitcoin realized profits was $257 million, a 92.7% decline from the peak of $3.51 billion recorded on December 10, 2024. It is also down 77.7% from the time when Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $124,710 on October 6, 2025. This indicator touched a low of $191 million on June 14, 2026, but has since recovered by 34.7%.

Axel Adler noted that selling pressure from profits has significantly decreased. The current volume of coins being sold for profit remains at a low level for this cycle, but this does not mean sellers are completely exhausted, nor does it indicate a recovery in market demand. If realized profits consistently rise to above $400-$500 million, it would more strongly confirm a sustained market improvement.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has recovered from a low of 0.26 in June to 0.43, but remains below the 1.0 level. The analyst pointed out that while the absolute scale of realized losses in this cycle exceeds that of 2022, the relative market pressure is still lower than in 2022. Since Bitcoin’s all-time high, realized losses have exceeded realized profits on 190 out of the past 291 days. Axel Adler warns that if the profit/loss ratio falls back below 0.26, accompanied by the price breaking below the cycle low of $58,535 set on June 30, it could signal further intensification of market pressure.