Bitcoin's June Correction Triggers $8.6 Billion in Options "Out of the Money," 80% of Positions Nearing Expiration Risk Amplifying Volatility

Odaily Planet Daily News According to data from market data platform Deribit, as Bitcoin continued to decline in June, the options market expiring this month showed a significant imbalance. Approximately $8.6 billion in notional value of BTC options are out of the money (OTM), facing the risk of expiring worthless.

Data shows that of the approximately $10.6 billion in open interest for options expiring on June 26, only about 20% are in the money (ITM), with the remaining 80% currently in a losing position. Analysts point out that this structural imbalance could trigger concentrated hedging adjustments by market makers and traders before expiration, thereby amplifying short-term market volatility.

The current Max Pain price is approximately $74,000, about 14% higher than Bitcoin's current spot price of around $65,000. Theoretically, this price level means the maximum number of option contracts will expire worthless, potentially creating an upward pull effect on prices as expiration approaches. However, the effectiveness of this mechanism in the crypto market remains debated.

Additionally, the bullish and bearish structure in the options market is relatively balanced, with a Put/Call ratio of about 0.87, indicating increased divergence in market sentiment. Approximately $450 million in positions are concentrated in the $60,000 put option, while the $80,000 call option also forms a key resistance level of about $406 million.

Analysts believe that as the quarterly expiration approaches, concentrated exercising and hedging adjustments could become important drivers of short-term price volatility, and Bitcoin may face a more dramatic directional window. (CoinDesk)