Barclays Bank: Spot Gold Expected to Rebound to $4,900 as Geopolitical Adjustments Subside

Odaily News According to Barclays Bank, the sell-off in gold triggered by the Middle East conflict does not represent a trend reversal but rather a market reset. The bank noted that a significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar, stock markets attracting risk capital away from defensive assets, and overly concentrated positions have all accelerated the decline in gold.

Barclays Bank estimates that the combined effects of a stronger U.S. dollar and a 10% rise in the S&P 500 index have led to an approximate 10% decline in gold prices, with the remaining drop attributed to position liquidations. Gold is currently trading near the bank's fair value estimate of $4,150. Barclays maintains its gold price forecasts of $4,791 per ounce for 2026 and $4,900 per ounce for 2027, but acknowledges some downside risks to these projections in the short term. The bank believes that persistent inflation, policy uncertainty, and central banks' ongoing diversification of foreign exchange reserves are structural factors supporting the long-term bullish trend. A re-establishment of a weaker U.S. dollar and a resumption of sustained central bank buying are two key conditions for driving a gold price rebound.