Delphi Digital: Since January Last Year, Only About 12% of New Tokens Listed on CEXs Are Above Issuance Price, Market Depth Imbalanced

Odaily Odaily reports that Delphi Digital has released the "Token Market Status Report," pointing out that the token market performance in this cycle has been suppressed by multiple structural issues, including internal token unlocks occurring on a fixed schedule regardless of project performance, protocol revenues failing to effectively flow back to holders, and airdrops gradually evolving into sources of exit liquidity.

The report shows that since January 2025, among all new tokens listed on major centralized exchanges (CEXs), if purchased on the listing day and held to the present, an average of $1,000 would be worth only about $500; the median decline is 82%, with only about 12% of tokens still above their issuance price, reflecting a market structure problem where "listing quantity takes priority over quality."

In terms of token economic design, the study notes that across over 400 unlock events, 28 out of 33 sample tokens significantly underperformed relative to Bitcoin in the three weeks before and after the unlock, resulting in an average excess return loss of about 7%, and most unlocks occurred within 30 days, making it difficult for the market to effectively digest the supply shock.

The report also points out that the long-standing industry issue of "lack of value return" is changing, with an increasing number of protocols beginning to channel revenues back to token holders through a "Fee Switch" mechanism. For example, Hyperliquid uses nearly all transaction fees for buybacks, Uniswap burns 100 million UNI tokens, Jupiter uses 50% of its fees for buybacks and locks them for three years, and Aave has also approved a DAO-backed weekly buyback plan of $1 million.

However, the report emphasizes that fee-based buybacks alone are insufficient to address supply pressure. For instance, the scale of buybacks for some projects still cannot cover the selling pressure from token unlocks, leading to a situation where "buybacks only offset inflation but fail to generate net buying pressure."

Meanwhile, the structure of institutional capital is changing. Institutional holdings of Bitcoin-related ETFs like IBIT increased 62% year-over-year, with the advisor channel growing by 204% and sovereign wealth funds and endowments rising by 228%, while arbitrage-focused hedge funds continue to exit. Long-term capital, including BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Mubadala Investment Company, is increasing its allocation.

The report concludes that in the next phase, more attractive token assets will simultaneously possess an "income return mechanism" and a "supply release structure linked to protocol performance," while the current market remains in the early stages of structural repair.