Analysis: Multiple Factors Support Long-Term Bullish Trend for Gold, Year-End Price May Reach $5,800

Odaily News According to institutions such as ANZ and Goldman Sachs, even if the Middle East war disrupts the market, gold may still rebound in the long term. Analysts from various institutions believe that resilient central bank demand, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and diversification away from US dollar-denominated assets are all reasons for long-term bullishness. ANZ analysts Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes stated that prices are expected to eventually recover as the deteriorating macroeconomic combination of economic growth and inflation paves the way for central banks to resume rate cuts.

ANZ maintains its outlook, forecasting the gold price to reach $5,800 by year-end. The analysts wrote that central bank gold purchases are expected to remain a key supporting pillar, with official purchases projected to be around 850 tonnes in 2026. ANZ's bullish stance echoes similar forecasts from Goldman Sachs and RBC Capital Markets in early March. Goldman Sachs maintains its $5,400 forecast, citing continued central bank buying and expectations for the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points this year. Goldman Sachs analysts previously stated that if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, gold still faces tactical downside risks in the short term. However, a prolonged conflict could accelerate the diversification away from traditional Western assets, providing long-term support for gold prices. (Jin10)