Reuters Poll: Analysts Cut Gold Price Forecasts for First Time Since Late 2023, But Central Bank Buying Expected to Cushion Decline

According to a Reuters poll, after gold prices sharply retreated from their January record highs, analysts have cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since late 2023. However, most still expect central bank buying and concerns over fiscal sustainability to provide support. The survey of 29 analysts and traders over the past three weeks showed a median gold price forecast of $4,509 per ounce for 2026. This figure is down from $4,916 three months ago and marks the first downward revision in 11 quarters. The average forecast for 2027 stands at $4,610, compared to $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in January but experienced a sharp pullback in the second quarter, as the war in Iran exacerbated energy inflation and raised expectations for interest rate hikes, leading to the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen by approximately 22%.