Kalshi settles $3.32 million Spotify prediction market after fraud streaming alert
2026-07-28 01:07
Odaily Odaily Planet Daily News Kalshi trader Caleb Davies stated that he had asked Kalshi to delay the settlement of a Spotify prediction market so that the enforcement team could review suspected artificial streaming data manipulation. The market, which focused on which artists would top Spotify's Daily U.S. Chart, had a trading volume of $3,320,900.
Davies said Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" surged approximately 70% in a single day and topped Spotify's U.S. chart on June 29. Kalshi’s Head of Enforcement and Legal Affairs, Robert DeNault, responded that only Spotify could verify whether the data originated from genuine listening or manipulation. Kalshi finalized the settlement minutes after sending this response.
Davies noted that the open interest for the "Earrings" outcome rose from $2,000 to over $70,000 in the days leading up to the disputed streaming data appearance. The following day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from the cumulative data for "Earrings." Based on the adjusted data, the song would have ranked fourth on June 29, not first.
Subsequently, Spotify requested that Kalshi and Polymarket remove its branding, stating that neither party had established a partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the relevant branding and modified its wording. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said the company is contacting Spotify and conducting an investigation. Kalshi has not yet published the investigation results, reversed the settlement, or announced compensation.
Davies said Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" surged approximately 70% in a single day and topped Spotify's U.S. chart on June 29. Kalshi’s Head of Enforcement and Legal Affairs, Robert DeNault, responded that only Spotify could verify whether the data originated from genuine listening or manipulation. Kalshi finalized the settlement minutes after sending this response.
Davies noted that the open interest for the "Earrings" outcome rose from $2,000 to over $70,000 in the days leading up to the disputed streaming data appearance. The following day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from the cumulative data for "Earrings." Based on the adjusted data, the song would have ranked fourth on June 29, not first.
Subsequently, Spotify requested that Kalshi and Polymarket remove its branding, stating that neither party had established a partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the relevant branding and modified its wording. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said the company is contacting Spotify and conducting an investigation. Kalshi has not yet published the investigation results, reversed the settlement, or announced compensation.
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