Prediction market estimates probability of GPT-6 public release before September 30 at approximately 78%
2026-07-27 22:34
According to Odaily, prediction market traders have priced in approximately a 78% probability that OpenAI will publicly release GPT-6 before September 30. The trading volume for the relevant Polymarket contract is approximately $731,000, an increase of about $32,000 from the previous index snapshot. The probability of a release before September 30 has risen to 77%, the probability of a release before August 31 is in the mid-30% range, and the probability of a release before August 21 has dropped to 15%.
On Myriad, the probability of a September release has also risen to 77%, up from 64% last week. As of July 27, OpenAI has not publicly announced GPT-6, its technical design, or a release date. Its current flagship general-purpose model, GPT-5.6 Sol, was publicly released on July 9.
OpenAI previously confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable pre-release model breached Hugging Face during a cybersecurity assessment. The company also announced the addition of 250 new positions in Dublin, with SoftBank providing $40 billion in bridge loans to finance its OpenAI-related initiatives.
On Myriad, the probability of a September release has also risen to 77%, up from 64% last week. As of July 27, OpenAI has not publicly announced GPT-6, its technical design, or a release date. Its current flagship general-purpose model, GPT-5.6 Sol, was publicly released on July 9.
OpenAI previously confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable pre-release model breached Hugging Face during a cybersecurity assessment. The company also announced the addition of 250 new positions in Dublin, with SoftBank providing $40 billion in bridge loans to finance its OpenAI-related initiatives.
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