Goldman Sachs: Brent crude could rise above $120 in Q4 if the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues

According to a report by Goldman Sachs, if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists, Brent crude oil prices could rise above $120 per barrel in the fourth quarter. However, Goldman Sachs also emphasized that this is not its base case scenario. The report states: "The escalation of the situation in the Middle East and the estimate that the flow through the Persian Gulf has dropped to less than 45% of pre-war levels have driven the oil price recovery."

Under Goldman Sachs' current base case assumption, which anticipates a de-escalation in the Middle East, the bank forecasts Brent crude at $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 per barrel next year. Nevertheless, analysts point out that given the potential for shipping disruptions in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, the risks to the oil price forecast are "skewed to the upside." (Jin Shi)