Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Drops Below Long-Term Holders, Triggering Bear Market End Signal

Odaily News Analysis shared by blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant on July 18 shows that Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis has fallen below the adjusted long-term holder cost basis, triggering a "bear market end" signal. This signal uses a 3-day confirmation window to compare the average purchase prices of short-term and long-term holders. 

The analysis indicates that short-term holders are investors holding Bitcoin for less than 6 months, while long-term holders are those holding for more than 6 months. The short-term holder cost basis has dropped from $112,500 to $69,000, reflecting that Bitcoin purchased over the past 6 months has changed hands at lower prices. The analysis states that the adjusted long-term holder cost basis excludes Bitcoin held for more than 7 years to reduce the impact of dormant supply. The current crossover is described as a change in holding structure, pointing to a late-stage bear market phase, but does not equate to confirming a market bottom or the start of a new bull run. 

The analysis also suggests that if the short-term holder cost basis rises back above the adjusted long-term holder cost basis, it would align with bull market confirmation signals from previous cycles. Until then, this signal only indicates that the Bitcoin bear market may be nearing its end.