ARK Invest: BTC Decline Diverges from Whale Accumulation, Market Shows Cycle Bottom Signals

Odaily Planet Daily News ARK Invest released the "The Bitcoin Quarterly" Q2 2026 report, stating that Bitcoin fell approximately 14% in the second quarter, closing at around $58,544, and broke below three major technical moving averages. This technical pattern is typically associated with a bearish market environment in historical cycles. The report shows that despite price pressure, Bitcoin Long-term Holders continued to increase their holdings, with their positions rising to a new all-time high of approximately 14.85 million BTC, absorbing the coins released during the market correction.

ARK Invest stated that on-chain data is signaling seller exhaustion: the supply of BTC in a loss state exceeds the supply in profit, and the rate of losses once surpassed the rate of profits. Similar phenomena have historically tended to cluster near market cycle bottoms.

The report also pointed out that institutional demand in the Bitcoin market is facing pressure. Both corporate Bitcoin reserves (Treasury Company) and the ETF ecosystem showed signs of weakness:

STRC preferred stock price once fell to around $74.57, below its $100 par value;

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows for 7 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative outflow of approximately 70,000 BTC.

ARK Invest believes that ETF outflows indicate that an important source of marginal buying demand for Bitcoin is weakening. However, the continuous accumulation by long-term holders suggests a redistribution of coins is underway within the market.

The firm stated that there is currently a clear divergence between BTC price performance and long-term holder behavior, and historical data shows that such divergences can often serve as important observation signals for market cycle turning points.