中金：维持美联储年内不加息的基准判断，但加息门槛已然下降

The Odaily Planet Daily reported that CICC's research indicates that the U.S. CPI for June fell by 0.4% month-on-month, with the year-over-year increase dropping to 3.5%; core CPI saw zero month-on-month growth, with a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, both figures falling short of market expectations. The decline in energy prices was the main reason for the cooling of inflation. Looking ahead, the situation between the U.S. and Iran has escalated again, and the prospects for energy inflation are uncertain. At the same time, the AI inflation effect is gradually emerging, with mismatched supply and demand for upstream hardware, price increases for software and related products, and AI capital expenditure driving total demand, all of which could make core inflation stickier.

In terms of policy, the cooling inflation in June supports the Federal Reserve in keeping interest rates unchanged at the July meeting. However, recent statements by Waller suggest that the Fed is reassessing the possibility of "preemptive rate hikes." We maintain our baseline judgment that there will be no rate hikes this year but note that the threshold for a rate hike has lowered. Should one or two overheated inflation data points emerge, it could prompt the Fed to further discuss rate hike options. (Jin Shi)