比特币熊市三大原因曝光，业内预计年底可能反弹至10万美元

The Odaily Planet Daily reports that Bitcoin has been on a continuous decline since October last year, with its current price hovering around half of its historical high of $126,000, indicating the market is still in a deep bear market phase. Multiple industry analysts believe that the current downward pressure on Bitcoin primarily stems from three major reasons: the four-year cycle, macroeconomic inflationary pressures, and market leverage liquidations.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, stated that Bitcoin's long-standing "four-year cycle" continues to influence investor psychology. Historically, Bitcoin typically experiences a one-year adjustment period after about three years of an upward cycle. Investors have formed cyclical expectations and began reducing some long-term holdings towards the end of 2025.

Additionally, the macroeconomic environment is also a significant factor dragging down Bitcoin. Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, pointed out that rising inflationary pressures in the United States have weakened market expectations for interest rate cuts. Investors are shifting towards traditional assets with higher yields, leading to capital outflows from risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. It is estimated that the short-term bottom could be near the $58,000 level, with future trends still influenced by interest rate policies, corporate Bitcoin buying activity, and progress in U.S. crypto regulatory legislation.

Excessive market leverage has also exacerbated this correction. As a large number of investors expanded their Bitcoin exposure through borrowing and financing during the bull market, derivatives open interest has declined as the market weakened, putting pressure on digital asset treasury companies as well. Strategy's stock price has fallen by approximately 75% since October last year, leading to a market reassessment of its previously promoted model of corporate Bitcoin accumulation.

Nevertheless, some analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin's outlook. Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategist at 21Shares, predicts that Bitcoin may bottom out this summer and rebound after interest rate policies shift toward easing and geopolitical conflicts ease, with a year-end target price of $100,000. (Fortune)