Barclays: Spot Gold to Rebound to $4,900 as Geopolitical Adjustments Fade

Odaily Planet Daily News Barclays believes that the sell-off in gold triggered by the conflict in the Middle East is not a trend reversal, but a market reset. The bank noted that a strong dollar, equity markets attracting risk capital away from defensive assets, and overly concentrated positions accelerated gold's decline.

Barclays estimates that the combined impact of a stronger dollar and a 10% rise in the S&P 500 resulted in roughly a 10% drop in gold prices, with the remaining decline attributed to position liquidations. Gold is currently trading near the bank’s fair value estimate of $4,150. Barclays maintains its gold price forecasts of $4,791 and $4,900 per ounce for 2026 and 2027, respectively, but acknowledges some short-term downside risks to these projections. The bank believes that persistent inflation, policy uncertainty, and central banks’ ongoing diversification of foreign exchange reserves are structural factors supporting the long-term bullish trend. A re-establishment of a weaker dollar and a resumption of sustained central bank buying are two key conditions for a gold price rebound.