Wintermute: BTC's Drop Below $62,000 Was Not Caused by Strategy's Bitcoin Sales; Real Selling Pressure Came from U.S. Institutions

Market maker Wintermute published its weekly market analysis report, stating that Bitcoin fell below $62,000 last week, recording a weekly decline of approximately 14%, hitting a new low since September 2024. Wintermute believes that although Strategy founder Michael Saylor's disclosure of selling 32 BTC attracted market attention, the scale of this transaction was negligible. The real reason for the market weakness is the continuous reduction of positions by U.S. institutional investors and outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Wintermute pointed out that the U.S. added 172,000 non-farm payroll jobs in May, significantly higher than the market expectation of around 80,000. Meanwhile, job openings rose to nearly a two-year high, and the services price index reached its highest level since August 2022. Strong economic data has dampened market expectations for a Fed rate cut, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.55%, creating a "good news is bad news" macro environment that puts pressure on risk assets.

At the same time, the rally in AI concept stocks has shown signs of weakening. The Nasdaq index fell 4.7% for the week, and the S&P 500 recorded its first weekly decline since March. Wintermute believes that the pullback in the AI sector, rising yields, and the upcoming SpaceX IPO have collectively dampened market risk appetite.

In the crypto market, as of May 30, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, with cumulative outflows of approximately $2.97 billion. May's net outflow reached $2.43 billion, marking the worst single-month performance since 2026. Wintermute OTC data shows that retail capital continues to flow into U.S. stocks, while U.S. institutional investors have recently turned bearish and are leading the sell-off.

However, Wintermute believes there are also positive signals in the market, including long-term capital gradually building positions at current price levels. From a perspective of over one year, Bitcoin's risk-reward ratio is becoming increasingly attractive. The report notes that the SpaceX IPO on June 12 will serve as an important barometer for observing market risk appetite. If the issuance is digested smoothly, it could help boost market sentiment; conversely, it might exacerbate pressure on risk assets.