SpaceX Pre-IPO Arbitrage Review: Yesterday Still Had 10% Spread

Odaily reported that on the eve of SpaceX's IPO, the SPCX pre-market contract on multiple CEXs and on-chain Perp DEXs presented price arbitrage opportunities due to differences in share count calculations and Rebase mechanisms, which several KOLs capitalized on. Among them, crypto KOL Ray (@birdonsilicon) shared: "Last night, I went long on bn and short on hl, still finding a 10-point arbitrage opportunity. Last night, bn issued a rebase announcement. Due to the discrepancy between the previously estimated share count (11.87B) and the actual share count (13.08B), SPCXUSDT positions will be converted at a ratio of 1.1. This means that bn's SPCX price will be divided by 1.1, while the position size will be multiplied by 1.1. This created a massive arbitrage opportunity because the SPCX contract on Hyperliquid was also initially launched based on the 11.87B share count. However, its documentation clearly states that Hyperliquid's SPCX will not rebase (as an HIP-3 DEX, tradexyz lacks the capability to rebase). The SPCX on Hyperliquid currently tracks the Class A common stock price. I submitted a ticket to tradexyz and received a clear response stating there would be no rebase." Additionally, he analyzed the reasons behind "SPCX on trade.xyz will not rebase," stating: "There are several main reasons. Those familiar with Hyperliquid and tradexyz know the relationship between the two. The former is a trading-specific L1 blockchain, while the latter is a DEX based on Hyperliquid's HIP-3. tradexyz is somewhat like an outsourced team, essentially just setting up a platform within Hyperliquid's ecosystem.

1. We need to understand that rebase is a very complex operation, involving halting trading, forced liquidations, and re-opening positions. This is a major engineering task even for large CEXs (like OKX and bn in this rebase). Smaller exchanges, such as Bitget, had to abandon efforts and choose to relist. For an on-chain team dependent on another blockchain, it is even more extremely challenging.

2. When tradexyz first launched the contract, it mentioned an estimated share count of 11.87B. However, realizing this could be controversial, it quickly removed any reference to the estimated share count from its documentation. It explicitly emphasized that the price tracked by SPCX on tradexyz is the Class A common stock price of SPCX and added numerous disclaimers stressing that there would be no rebase."

Crypto KOL KyleChen also posted last night: "The optimal hedging strategy should be on OKX's pre-market perpetual. With an IPO subscription cost of 142u, there's still about a 14% profit margin. Comparison of the three pre-market platforms —

- OKX Pre SpacX at 162u, confirmed to be the per-share price

- Binance at 167u, has announced a rebase on 6/10 with a coefficient of 1.1, projected adjusted price around 151.2u

- Hyperliquid at 168u, its pre-market contract is serviced via trade.xyz based on HIP-3. From a technical infrastructure standpoint, the contract does not support a direct rebase. The corresponding share count is 11.87 billion shares, significantly different from the actual issued shares of 13.08 billion. It is highly likely that the old contract will be settled at some point, and a new per-share price contract will be listed." Finally, he posted today, stating, "The discount and premium of SPCX across different platforms represent the market's pricing of rules and probabilities."

It is worth noting that this price spread arbitrage opportunity has now narrowed to around 3%, and the practical trading window has closed. The above content is merely a sharing of ideas and does not constitute investment advice.