Analyst: Bitcoin Has Recorded Net Losses for 22 Consecutive Days, Valuation Enters Historically Low Zone

According to Odaily, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that Bitcoin's price has corrected approximately 20% over the past month, with two key on-chain indicators showing sustained market sentiment pressure. Among them, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score has dropped from 0.95 a month ago to 0.32, far below the historical average of 1.71, indicating that the previous valuation premium has been largely absorbed, and the market has entered a zone more conducive to long-term capital accumulation.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 7-day moving average Net Realized Profit/Loss has been in negative territory for 22 consecutive days, with the market consistently completing transactions at a loss since May 18. This indicator hit a low of approximately -$1.2 billion on June 6 and has since slightly rebounded to around -$1.1 billion. Although market pressure is evident, it remains below the extreme levels of approximately -$2.2 billion seen during the bear market capitulation phase of 2022.

Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that a large number of holders are currently selling Bitcoin below their cost basis, reflecting significant market panic and capitulation sentiment. However, the MVRV Z-score remains above 0, suggesting that the market has not yet entered a deeply undervalued zone nor presented a historically significant value trough.

He believes that, taken together, the two indicators show that while market sentiment is weak, valuations have clearly cooled. Moving forward, the focus should be on whether Net Realized Profit/Loss can return above the zero line and whether the MVRV Z-score can maintain a positive value. If the MVRV Z-score falls below 0, or if realized losses again approach the extreme levels of 2022, it could signal a deeper phase of market capitulation.