ArthurHayes: Liquidity, Not Regulatory Favorability, Is the Core Driver of Bitcoin's Rise

Odaily reported that at the Consensus 2026 conference, Arthur Hayes stated that the crypto industry does not rely on regulatory developments to drive its growth, and the core factors affecting Bitcoin's price are only technical reliability and fiat liquidity, with the latter being the true driving force.

He pointed out that from the quantitative easing during the Obama era, to the fiscal stimulus in Trump's first term, and the Biden administration's release of reverse repo liquidity by replacing long-term debt with short-term debt, each round of monetary expansion has been highly correlated with Bitcoin's rise. Arthur Hayes believes that although the Trump administration has promoted several crypto regulatory bills, Bitcoin has still fallen by approximately 25% over the past 18 months, indicating that regulatory tailwinds do not directly boost price increases.

He also stated that the Trump family's previous experiences with debanking, asset freezes, and lawsuits may have made them more understanding of Bitcoin's value as an asset outside of state control. Arthur Hayes noted that if Bitcoin eventually evolves into a standard financial product on bank balance sheets, it will lose its original meaning.