Gate Research: The Fed restarts rate hikes, and the crypto market enters a phase of structural divergence under high interest rates

Odaily report: Gate Research recently released a rate hike report. In September 2026, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the first increase in the policy rate in more than three years, but the crypto market did not see significant selling. Over the following 7 days, cumulative gains reached 11.58% and 11.94%, while SOL rose 18.70%.

Gate Research analysis suggests that a rate hike does not necessarily mean crypto assets will decline. What the market is really trading is the difference between policy and expectations. During the four rate hikes in 2023, the market trend diverged afterward; while the deep adjustment in 2022 was caused by rapid rate hikes combined with an industry credit crisis. From the transmission mechanism perspective, high interest rates raise the yield on dollar assets and the opportunity cost of holding crypto assets. BTC is relatively more defensive due to its higher liquidity and institutional participation, while high-beta assets such as SOL have greater elasticity when the market recovers, and also face higher drawdown risk when liquidity tightens. Looking ahead, if inflation and employment gradually cool and rate hike expectations peak, the market may price in improving liquidity in advance, with momentum gradually spreading from BTC to ETH and altcoins.

As a leading global digital asset platform, Gate continues to monitor changes in the macroeconomic environment and their impact on the crypto market, helping investors better grasp market trends and identify potential opportunities in an ever-changing market environment.